What are my chances of getting a hit in the Billboard Hot 100?

[Papanate]

Colt Capperrune and other say they produce 150 songs per year. I find I can do 3 songs as a batch in a 10 day session. So this would give me very little time off. I have not gone full time yet so I have no idea if I can sustain it. I find my biggest cause of lost time is people cancelling on me at the last minute.

One thing I know for sure: If I don't try I will not be successful. To do it successfully I have to close down my other activities and commit 100% to producing the best material possible.

I make my living from music - Playing in a Cover Band I do about 175 dates a year - Playing in an Original Band we do about 35 dates year - both make money for me - i also do music for Movies, TV , Adds etc….I have about a 1 every 75 song/music piece success rate - I have to write a lot - I Produce/Engineer and usually handle about 12 bands a year - most of them I don’t make points on - they are often undiscovered and trying to get noticed - I do various other music things - the point be that writing alone you’ll have a 1 in a million chance to getting played - or your song picked up - and that’s if you have superb talent - so while it’s true that if you don’t try you won’t even start the process - if you aren’t independently wealthy - have a sponsor - or good at hustling gigs (or all three) you are whistling in the wind,

 

[joshukaz]

I am a home studio owner and producer with a goal of getting songs into the Billboard Hot 100. To date I have had modest success with artists I have worked with.

Here are the raw statistics:

• There are about 10,000 songs added on Spotify every day. Source: Uploaded to Spotify daily.
• So this is a total of 3,650,000 song per year. That is a lot of music.
• There are only about 1,000 songs that get into the Billboard Hot 100 each year. Some songs will be in the chart for most of the year, others for only a week or two.
• So on the raw numbers one in 3,650 songs that Spotify adds with make the Billboard Hot 100.
• Keep in mind Max Martin will have an almost 100% strike rate and an average home producer will have a near 0% strike rate. Raw statistics have limitations.

But you can discount much of the music submitted to Spotify including styles of EDM, heavy metal, prog rock, long ambient tracks, religious music, excessively niche, or amateurish productions. Not that I am criticising any of this music as it is all valid within its own market. By my estimate only about 10% of the music submitted to Spotify is in contention to become a Hot 100 hit.

So if one in 3,650 songs added to Spotify get to the Billboard Hot 100 but only 10% of these songs are contenders then one in 365 well produced and stylistically suitable songs make it to the Hot 100.
In order to be a contender you need an artist to be the complete package.

• Attractive, well presented artist.
• Strong and consistent social media campaign on different platforms. eg. Instagram, Facebook, TikTok and YouTube.
• Good mental health and emotionally robust. (Like I will find this in the music industry?)
• Some marketing budget that is well spent.
• Hopefully a live presence and an ability to build a local fan base that will generate local interest and generate interesting content to post about on social media.
• An attractive video on YouTube to promote each song.
• A willingness to do the hard yards.

As a producer I need to bring my best game.

• I have no doubt I need to lift my game as a composer, musician, arranger and producer. This just means putting in the hours of effective study.
• Remain up to date musically.
• Be constantly building my musical skills. Strive for excellence.
• Be a joy to work with in my studio.
• Help the artists I work with to be their best in the studio and out.
• Provide mentorship to develop the artists.
• Help the artists to develop their live acts. (I have a lot of live experience playing bass is covers bands.)
• Provide introductions to good managers, agents, web designers etc.
• Provide some protection from the snake pit of con men, sleaze and thieves that infest the music industry.

So, if I do my job well; and work with artists who do their job well.
Over the next 4 years I work full time, consistently with a small group of hard working artists. I produce about 100 songs per year. Hopefully producing 400 quality songs for good artists who are effectively marketing their music. I can do a batch of 3 songs in about 10 days full time. I find it most efficient to work in batches of 3 songs, especially if I need to bring session musicians. dancers for hire can greatly enhance a musician's live performance, adding visual energy and helping to engage the audience. Choreographed movement can elevate the overall showmanship and create a more memorable experience. It’s a smart move, especially for pop or upbeat genres where visuals complement the music's rhythm and vibe.

CONCLUSION
If I have selected good artists, done my job well, kept my focus on the goal, worked both hard and smart, then at least one of my 400 songs has a reasonable chance of getting into the Billboard Hot 100.

Your thoughts? Feel free to let out your inner Troll and give me a total roasting.

I totally agree that beyond talent, the artist’s image, marketing, and social media presence are game changers nowadays. Your plan to focus on quality over quantity and build a strong artist-producer relationship sounds spot on. Producing 400 songs with solid promotion could definitely increase your chances. Also, the batch method seems efficient for workflow.

 

[Xenon 6]

I make my living from music - Playing in a Cover Band I do about 175 dates a year - Playing in an Original Band we do about 35 dates year - both make money for me - i also do music for Movies, TV , Adds etc….I have about a 1 every 75 song/music piece success rate - I have to write a lot - I Produce/Engineer and usually handle about 12 bands a year - most of them I don’t make points on - they are often undiscovered and trying to get noticed - I do various other music things - the point be that writing alone you’ll have a 1 in a million chance to getting played - or your song picked up - and that’s if you have superb talent - so while it’s true that if you don’t try you won’t even start the process - if you aren’t independently wealthy - have a sponsor - or good at hustling gigs (or all three) you are whistling in the wind,

I totally agree with you IF your aim is to make a full time living put of music. I have a passive income based on house rentals and share dividends that provide more money than a player twice as good as me could make from playing in a covers band etc. My focus is entirely on the Billboard Hot 100 and all that comes with that.
Where do you get the 1 in a million number from? My calculations are closer to 1 in 3,650 but only 10% of these are stylistically suitable so the number is more like 1 in 365 songs. Producing 100 songs a year I get I hit every 4 years? Check my numbers, show me your mathematics.

 

[Xenon 6]

Kind of an old thread, but I just stumbled across it and, without getting into the details, do a lot of probability- and -stats based stuff for a living, and I think this is the angle that you need to think about.

Observing that 1 in 3,650 songs that make it to Spotify charts on the Billboard Hot 100 and that implies a 0.03% (rounded up) hit rate basically assumes that every sing has an equal chance of charting and we're talking about a normal distribution of songs. I don't think that's a defensible assumption; if it were, the best way to produce a top 100 hit would be to churn out as much music as you can, and while releasing 4,000 songs wouldn't guarantee a hit, the probability of having one by then would be pretty high. Pretty clearly, that's NOT how the music industry works.

As you ppoint out, some producers probably. chart close to 100% of the time, and some artists are popular enough that almost anything they release is probably going to at least briefly show up in the charts. Start backing those out, and how many of that 1,000 Top 100 hits a year are first time artists and/or first time producers? Ten? Twenty? I think that's the better starting point, and you're probably looking at more like 50-100k to 1 odds. Ballparking it. I think that's a far cry from the numbers you have in mind, in the 1-in-365 range by focusing on genres likely to chart.

I'm trying to think about truly self-produced music that's charted, over the years. Billy Eilish is the most recent example, but then there's Bon Iver, I think I remember reading the first Band of Horses album where "Funeral" became a pretty big hit was one they recorded themselves in a rented house... If you want to expand it a bit to artists without a ton of label support maybe the comps get a little easier, but only a little.

I think if this is really a goal of yours, then I think you're probably at least heading in the right direction by thinking about artist selection, but I'd take it a step further. Don't think so much about whether they're the "full package." Instead think about whether or not they have a song that makes you believe. My subjective sense is a lot of breakthrough artists succeed because they've written the sort of song that it could be the last thing you hear on earth as you're dying and you'd be alright with that. If you want a hit, then it's not going to be because of your production, it's not going to be because of the look of the artist, it's going to be because they wrote a song you can't get out of your head, and are willing to go on the road to share that music with people.

My goals are easier - I write instrumental guitar rock, so I'm just padding the denominator for you. But, a 1-in-365 chance of producing a top 100 hit doesn't really pass the sniff test, if you will.

The most thoughtful response I have had thus far. I have plotted that my journey will probably involve working with labels. I have had artists I produced get record deals and release the material I produced. I even brokered the deals for some of them. I have seen the Billie and Finneas Eilish model proves that you don't have to be part of a large industry team to be a contender. Working with about 5 pop different artists, in my studio 6 days per week my skills will improve over time. When the artists I work with are not in the studio with me they should be touring, working social media and networking. They can work with managers, agents, labels and other people who provide services that are not my field of expertise. If I am putting in 2,000 hours a year in the studio writing, arranging and recording material I should hone my skill set over time.

This is not self-produced music as I am not the artist. I am also quick to use studio musicians when I don't have the chops to play parts.
I think of the producer as the project manager who runs a team to create recorded music. I personally double as song writing assistant, engineer, and session player but lots of successful producers also have more than one role.

Your input has been valuable. Thank you.

 

[Papanate]

Where do you get the 1 in a million number from?

It’s a guess - first if you aren’t massively talented at songwriting you don’t have a chance - second if you don’t have the intagible thing in your music you stand even less of a chance - third take a look at the Billboard 100 - how many songs get on it and why do they get on it? Maybe a 3000 will make a appearance - and there 5 million people writing songs - you do the math.

My calculations are closer to 1 in 3,650 but only 10% of these are stylistically suitable so the number is more like 1 in 365 songs. Producing 100 songs a year I get I hit every 4 years? Check my numbers, show me your mathematics.

It isn’t mathematics - songs get on Billboard for one reason - Money - lots of money - then to rise the song has to have a hook and talent behind it - people want something new and stylistically similar to what else use to be on the chart - if you are writing pop that is harder do than ever - if you aren’t doing some kind of rap/r&b hybrid you chances are infinitesimal -

 

[Xenon 6]

It’s a guess - first if you aren’t massively talented at songwriting you don’t have a chance - second if you don’t have the intagible thing in your music you stand even less of a chance - third take a look at the Billboard 100 - how many songs get on it and why do they get on it? Maybe a 3000 will make a appearance - and there 5 million people writing songs - you do the math.



It isn’t mathematics - songs get on Billboard for one reason - Money - lots of money - then to rise the song has to have a hook and talent behind it - people want something new and stylistically similar to what else use to be on the chart - if you are writing pop that is harder do than ever - if you aren’t doing some kind of rap/r&b hybrid you chances are infinitesimal -

I am not seeing the "big money" on promotion you speak of. You only need sales of about 9,000 songs to break into the Hot 100. So if one of my artists takes a few years to build up 100,000 Instagram followers and releases a good song with a modest amount of paid promotion (maybe $20k/song) to push it along. It seams reasonable to get a 10% action rate among her followers?

I exclusively do female fronted pop with a danceable rhythm and multi-layered vocals using counterpoint and complex harmonies. I have a Diploma of Composition and Arrangement so I understand harmony quite well and JS Bach is the master of counterpoint, but I can't get too complex for pop music.

I am thinking about leaving my well paid IT job and doing music production full time. I have always been fairly successful at what I have done. In the army I was in Special Forces, career change to IT and 6 figure income, Masters Degree in Cyber Security, successful investments, I have played in covers bands. Time to turn my financial independence into taking music from long time hobby to profession?

I suspect I will have to put in 6 days a week for 2 years in the studio to produce 200 songs and have 4,000 hours production experience that would put me in the league of a serious professional. From there every song could be a breakthrough.

If I wanted to cheat (I don't) there are promotion companies who will buy 9,000 songs via proxies for less than $20k. This is commonly used for "pump priming". It is a common practice but is highly risky as it can get you banned from the charts.

 

[DM60]

I am not seeing the "big money" on promotion you speak of. You only need sales of about 9,000 songs to break into the Hot 100. So if one of my artists takes a few years to build up 100,000 Instagram followers and releases a good song with a modest amount of paid promotion (maybe $20k/song) to push it along. It seams reasonable to get a 10% action rate among her followers?

I exclusively do female fronted pop with a danceable rhythm and multi-layered vocals using counterpoint and complex harmonies. I have a Diploma of Composition and Arrangement so I understand harmony quite well and JS Bach is the master of counterpoint, but I can't get too complex for pop music.

I am thinking about leaving my well paid IT job and doing music production full time. I have always been fairly successful at what I have done. In the army I was in Special Forces, career change to IT and 6 figure income, Masters Degree in Cyber Security, successful investments, I have played in covers bands. Time to turn my financial independence into taking music from long time hobby to profession?

I suspect I will have to put in 6 days a week for 2 years in the studio to produce 200 songs and have 4,000 hours production experience that would put me in the league of a serious professional. From there every song could be a breakthrough.

If I wanted to cheat (I don't) there are promotion companies who will buy 9,000 songs via proxies for less than $20k. This is commonly used for "pump priming". It is a common practice but is highly risky as it can get you banned from the charts.

Well, somebody has to make it. If you think you have the grind and can fund it, I say go for it. From what I can gather, you might have what it takes, which is a lot of BS. Really, you have to be a used car salesman for the music business. I know first hand. Not too deep into it, but enough to have seen the goings on. It is a rigged game and you have to figure out how to weave your way through the obstacles. That being said, someone eventually wins the lottery. If you don't play, you don't win.

Good luck, do let us know when you have at least touched the top 500.

 

[rob aylestone]

Where are you getting the idea about 'sales' from?? My music sales - as in real purchases in the form of downloads are tiny, but my PRS income is constantly growing. Sales now percentage wise earn me next to nothing - a few million streams however, do. Th catch is that earnings seem to now be unrelated to the billboard charts (or at least to the UK version of them). That will never happen here. The other very strange thing is how Spotify stats that they send me are totally different from the returns PRS get from Spotify. I get reports telling me a certain piece is doing well, yet PRS indicate a few dollars, while the big earners (in my modest way) show on spotify as slow earners - it makes no sense.

It is ALL about promotion for one side of the business and luck on the other. I never know if a good performance will be a regular earner, or a random blip. I find it impossible to predict and impossible to verify. One title might show over ten million streams on some platform, but not show up at all in another.

Artificial promotion is ridiculously dangerous - and you can get a ban even if you did not do it. Happened to me, and you have zero rights. I did not promote it in any way, but the sudden spike in usage triggered an instant, no arguing ban and removal. That title when re-released via a different aggregator generates little.

My intense period of churning out material never did much, but I think I have around 150 compositions out there and around 30 covers of some kind. The covers generate far, far more money. 20K promotional budget frankly sounds very risky - how does a piece of new music generate followers? It needs serious exposure, and I'm not certain there is any way to guarantee it. One of my arrangements was a slow instrumental version of a song one name artist uses in his set regularly - he used my track as walking in music a couple of years ago on a tour - that eventually got through the system and I made a few pounds, then it totally stopped and it fell off the radar.

If you write good music that people really like, then maybe you need to find ways to get it to somebody who will use it? I really do not know how that works any longer? I do not think there is any prescription, or calculation to set promotion - it's down to luck far too many times. Radio play still works - getting something played on National Radio here seems to filter through to other stations - no idea how,

 

[DM60]

Artificial promotion is ridiculously dangerous - and you can get a ban even if you did not do it. Happened to me, and you have zero rights. I did not promote it in any way, but the sudden spike in usage triggered an instant, no arguing ban and removal. That title when re-released via a different aggregator generates little.

This just happened to me, the song, floundering for the last 8 years, gets this crazy increase. I'm like "I have been found!". Next month an email from Spotify via DistroKid, my song was removed. WTF and like you said. too bad, too sad.

 

[Papanate]

If you write good music that people really like, then maybe you need to find ways to get it to somebody who will use it? I really do not know how that works any longer? I do not think there is any prescription, or calculation to set promotion - it's down to luck far too many times.

It’s not down to luck in my case - I have about 200 people that are buyers who know me and my work - when I release something to be picked up most of those people take a listen - over time I have about a 20% pickup rate - Songs I release for consumers seems like luck - but its really not as I've built a fan base - which in my case I’ve got about 125,000 people who stream my music - if not in the initial release then over time - not much by any measure - but it’s enough to be part. of my income stream - now days it’s a little odd - you can have a million streams - and only $20K income - I'm not in a position to demand any more - where as a group like AC/DC makes close to $2 million a year off of streams - the demanded more money and got it.

Radio play still works - getting something played on National Radio here seems to filter through to other stations - no idea how,

I don’t know about Britains Market - but Terra Radio in the US is dead to all but the most established artist.

 

[Xenon 6]

Where are you getting the idea about 'sales' from?? My music sales - as in real purchases in the form of downloads are tiny, but my PRS income is constantly growing. Sales now percentage wise earn me next to nothing - a few million streams however, do. Th catch is that earnings seem to now be unrelated to the billboard charts (or at least to the UK version of them). That will never happen here. The other very strange thing is how Spotify stats that they send me are totally different from the returns PRS get from Spotify. I get reports telling me a certain piece is doing well, yet PRS indicate a few dollars, while the big earners (in my modest way) show on spotify as slow earners - it makes no sense.

It is ALL about promotion for one side of the business and luck on the other. I never know if a good performance will be a regular earner, or a random blip. I find it impossible to predict and impossible to verify. One title might show over ten million streams on some platform, but not show up at all in another.

Artificial promotion is ridiculously dangerous - and you can get a ban even if you did not do it. Happened to me, and you have zero rights. I did not promote it in any way, but the sudden spike in usage triggered an instant, no arguing ban and removal. That title when re-released via a different aggregator generates little.

My intense period of churning out material never did much, but I think I have around 150 compositions out there and around 30 covers of some kind. The covers generate far, far more money. 20K promotional budget frankly sounds very risky - how does a piece of new music generate followers? It needs serious exposure, and I'm not certain there is any way to guarantee it. One of my arrangements was a slow instrumental version of a song one name artist uses in his set regularly - he used my track as walking in music a couple of years ago on a tour - that eventually got through the system and I made a few pounds, then it totally stopped and it fell off the radar.

If you write good music that people really like, then maybe you need to find ways to get it to somebody who will use it? I really do not know how that works any longer? I do not think there is any prescription, or calculation to set promotion - it's down to luck far too many times. Radio play still works - getting something played on National Radio here seems to filter through to other stations - no idea how,

The most potent "sales" in terms of the charts these days are song sales through the iTunes store. Streaming needs much bigger numbers.

 

[Xenon 6]

This just happened to me, the song, floundering for the last 8 years, gets this crazy increase. I'm like "I have been found!". Next month an email from Spotify via DistroKid, my song was removed. WTF and like you said. too bad, too sad.

There is lots of artificial promotion and playment fraud going on. Someone was caught and went to jail after racking up US$10M in royalties from Spotify. It is often done with AI generated music so it is fake songs from fake artists. There is a whole industry based on it in Bangladesh and they use VPN's to appear physically in other locations. Some of it is done poorly and gets caught.
An interesting side aspect of this is it has been used to 'take out' rival acts.

 

[DrewPeterson7]

I am not seeing the "big money" on promotion you speak of. You only need sales of about 9,000 songs to break into the Hot 100. So if one of my artists takes a few years to build up 100,000 Instagram followers and releases a good song with a modest amount of paid promotion (maybe $20k/song) to push it along. It seams reasonable to get a 10% action rate among her followers?

Per week, though, right? So someone with 100,000 followers who gets 10% of their fans to download a single might hit the 98th or 97th spot, maybe (I'm trusting your stats here, and guessing), but then would presumably drop off the next week, unless they get another 10,000 people to buy?

I mean, again, I'm probably the wrong guy to have this conversation list as I play a genre so nice that selling a hundred copies would count as "success." But, I think your odds of cracking the top 100 are a LOT longer than the 1-in-365 you back into, even assuming you have a pipeline of female pop artists with 100k in instagram followers to record.

I also... don't know if I'd enjoy making music, if the goal was so slavishly to get it to chart? I don't know... it seems like it would rob a lot of what makes music fun for me, if I was so worried about whether other people would like it, rather than just trying to refine and follow my own vision.

 

[Xenon 6]

So I am trying to define how many plays are needed and the data is quite easy to get.
Karol G & Feid have a song called Verano Rosa that is a new entry to the charts and Number 96 on the Hot 100, I go have a look at Spotify and it shows 20,701,258 plays on Spotify.
Corey Kent has a song called This Heart that is a first time entry at number 82 and it has almost 34,000,000 plays on Spotify.
The data defines the problem and can guide finding a solution. How do you prompt this level of engagement?

 

[Xenon 6]

Per week, though, right? So someone with 100,000 followers who gets 10% of their fans to download a single might hit the 98th or 97th spot, maybe (I'm trusting your stats here, and guessing), but then would presumably drop off the next week, unless they get another 10,000 people to buy?

I mean, again, I'm probably the wrong guy to have this conversation list as I play a genre so nice that selling a hundred copies would count as "success." But, I think your odds of cracking the top 100 are a LOT longer than the 1-in-365 you back into, even assuming you have a pipeline of female pop artists with 100k in instagram followers to record.

I also... don't know if I'd enjoy making music, if the goal was so slavishly to get it to chart? I don't know... it seems like it would rob a lot of what makes music fun for me, if I was so worried about whether other people would like it, rather than just trying to refine and follow my own vision.

Yes, you are right about the numbers.
So would I enjoy making music with a defined goal? My type of personality needs a challenge. Also, once you are charting in the Hot 100 that creates opportunity and bring rewards that can take a person to the next level. If I am going to play I am playing to win.

 

[TalismanRich]

So it seems to me that it's a simple math problem. Get 100,000 subscribers and make sure they each listen to your tune 200 times... Presto, 20,000,000 streams and you get to #96 on the Hot 100.

It might help to have a SONG that a wide variety of people want to HEAR! There are probably a thousand good songwriters walking around Nashville today who have written such songs but never got a song on the charts. Occasionally, after writing a couple of hundred songs, one will get picked up by a major artist and they'll have a million seller. They're called Overnight Sensations.

There's no math equation that will tell you why someone like JellyRoll, or Reba, or Bruno Mars, or Gaga breaks through, other than hard work and some luck.


Or you can shortcut the whole process, and win American Idol. There you only need to beat out about 100,000 people who audition each year. Make the top 10 and you're in!

 

[DrewPeterson7]

Yes, you are right about the numbers.
So would I enjoy making music with a defined goal? My type of personality needs a challenge. Also, once you are charting in the Hot 100 that creates opportunity and bring rewards that can take a person to the next level. If I am going to play I am playing to win.

Mine does too. I chose this:

So I am trying to define how many plays are needed and the data is quite easy to get.
Karol G & Feid have a song called Verano Rosa that is a new entry to the charts and Number 96 on the Hot 100, I go have a look at Spotify and it shows 20,701,258 plays on Spotify.
Corey Kent has a song called This Heart that is a first time entry at number 82 and it has almost 34,000,000 plays on Spotify.
The data defines the problem and can guide finding a solution. How do you prompt this level of engagement?

IMO, again, you're mixing metrics. Lifetime plays vs weekly listening, and no more than 30 seconds of poking around (wiikipedia to the source material) says they differentiat between free streams and subscription streams, as well.

Billboard Finalizes Changes to How Streams Are Weighted for Billboard Hot 100 & Billboard 200

Billboard has finalized weighting changes to the Billboard Hot 100 songs chart and Billboard 200 albums chart. A greater emphasis will be given to paid subscription streams, with ad-supported activity remaining an important factor on the album and songs charts.

www.billboard.com

I don't have an account, though if you want to crack the top 100, I assume you do - this should give you a good look at their actual methodology, and I'd probably want to know exactly how my progress is being measured if this was a nut I really wanted to crack... "What you measure, you get," and all that.