What are my chances of getting a hit in the Billboard Hot 100?

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Xenon 6

Xenon 6

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I am a home studio owner and producer with a goal of getting songs into the Billboard Hot 100. To date I have had modest success with artists I have worked with.

Here are the raw statistics:
  • There are about 10,000 songs added on Spotify every day. Source: Uploaded to Spotify daily.
  • So this is a total of 3,650,000 song per year. That is a lot of music.
  • There are only about 1,000 songs that get into the Billboard Hot 100 each year. Some songs will be in the chart for most of the year, others for only a week or two.
  • So on the raw numbers one in 3,650 songs that Spotify adds with make the Billboard Hot 100.
  • Keep in mind Max Martin will have an almost 100% strike rate and an average home producer will have a near 0% strike rate. Raw statistics have limitations.
But you can discount much of the music submitted to Spotify including styles of EDM, heavy metal, prog rock, long ambient tracks, religious music, excessively niche, or amateurish productions. Not that I am criticising any of this music as it is all valid within its own market. By my estimate only about 10% of the music submitted to Spotify is in contention to become a Hot 100 hit.

So if one in 3,650 songs added to Spotify get to the Billboard Hot 100 but only 10% of these songs are contenders then one in 365 well produced and stylistically suitable songs make it to the Hot 100.
In order to be a contender you need an artist to be the complete package.
  • Attractive, well presented artist.
  • Strong and consistent social media campaign on different platforms. eg. Instagram, Facebook, TikTok and YouTube.
  • Good mental health and emotionally robust. (Like I will find this in the music industry?)
  • Some marketing budget that is well spent.
  • Hopefully a live presence and an ability to build a local fan base that will generate local interest and generate interesting content to post about on social media.
  • An attractive video on YouTube to promote each song.
  • A willingness to do the hard yards.
As a producer I need to bring my best game.
  • I have no doubt I need to lift my game as a composer, musician, arranger and producer. This just means putting in the hours of effective study.
  • Remain up to date musically.
  • Be constantly building my musical skills. Strive for excellence.
  • Be a joy to work with in my studio.
  • Help the artists I work with to be their best in the studio and out.
  • Provide mentorship to develop the artists.
  • Help the artists to develop their live acts. (I have a lot of live experience playing bass is covers bands.)
  • Provide introductions to good managers, agents, web designers etc.
  • Provide some protection from the snake pit of con men, sleaze and thieves that infest the music industry.
So, if I do my job well; and work with artists who do their job well.
Over the next 4 years I work full time, consistently with a small group of hard working artists. I produce about 100 songs per year. Hopefully producing 400 quality songs for good artists who are effectively marketing their music. I can do a batch of 3 songs in about 10 days full time. I find it most efficient to work in batches of 3 songs, especially if I need to bring session musicians.

CONCLUSION
If I have selected good artists, done my job well, kept my focus on the goal, worked both hard and smart, then at least one of my 400 songs has a reasonable chance of getting into the Billboard Hot 100.

Your thoughts?
Feel free to let out your inner Troll and give me a total roasting.
 
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A couple of things, since I know so much ;). On the second set of bullets, you can't forget hype. Many of the top 100 are just pure promotion.

Third set of bullets, "I have no doubt I need to lift my games as a composer, musician, arranger and producer. This just means putting in the hours of effective study." I don't think you or one, needs to be all of that. But need access to those. I always see a producer not necessarily having those skills, but access to those that do. I always think of Steely Dan, Rick Rubin (I don't think he even plays an instrument). But you do make good points.

Everybody needs goals, I would say, for me, those are a little out of my reach/desires. But if you want to be pro, hits are a good thing, not the only thing, but certainly helps.
 
A couple of things, since I know so much ;). On the second set of bullets, you can't forget hype. Many of the top 100 are just pure promotion.

Third set of bullets, "I have no doubt I need to lift my games as a composer, musician, arranger and producer. This just means putting in the hours of effective study." I don't think you or one, needs to be all of that. But need access to those. I always see a producer not necessarily having those skills, but access to those that do. I always think of Steely Dan, Rick Rubin (I don't think he even plays an instrument). But you do make good points.

Everybody needs goals, I would say, for me, those are a little out of my reach/desires. But if you want to be pro, hits are a good thing, not the only thing, but certainly helps.
As for the "pure promotion" part, I don't hear much in the Billboard Hot 100 that shouldn't be there. Even it is only there because it is part of a movie sound track, the song passed a lot of gatekeepers to get to that point.

Yes, it is 4 or 5 years of full time work for little remuneration and uncertain returns.
At this point I have no budget for hiring outside talent but I need to be good enough at the composer, musician, arranger and producer skill sets to be part of the team when I can get specialist talent; and as a producer I manage that talent. The role of the producer is also known as "Project Manager" in other industries and the producer is responsible for delivering a quality product on time, and on budget.

As a producer I don't want to be one of those bottom feeders delivering B grade product and taking money from young people who have seen too many of those television talent shows. I want to be able to deliver A Grade product and have the track record to prove my worth.
 
All that isn't really necessary. I think it's still more that song than anything.

Oliver Anthony recorded a song a year and half ago for a car salesman in a field for a folk/roots Youtube/Facebook/TikTok channel called Radio WV. Rich Men North Of Richmond went viral.

A week later, it was #1 on the Billboard charts and stayed for two weeks. They now have 186 million streams on Youtube alone after a year and a half. There are more on Spotify and Apple Music. Most of the songs on the channel have less than 50,000 views. I'm sure a lot of those views are because of people looking for Rich Men, and clicking on another song or two.

Sometimes lightning does strike. Originality can be a good thing. It doesn't have to be a slickly produced song with a SuperBowl style video. If you try to break out the next Beyonce or Billy Eilish, you have a much tougher job. There are already a few dozen of them on the radio.
 
I am a home studio owner and producer with a goal of getting songs into the Billboard Hot 100. To date I have had modest success with artists I have worked with.
So, if I do my job well; and work with artists who do their job well.
If I have selected good artists, done my job well, kept my focus on the goal, worked both hard and smart, then at least one of my 400 songs has a reasonable chance of getting into the Billboard Hot 100.
Your thoughts?
You have to have money behind you to get in the Billboard Hot 100 - Talent and Hardwork Matter - but they don’t amount to much if at all in terms of getting placed -
Such as a Server Farm with 500 Indiviually ID’d computers Streaming your Music 4 or 5 times daily. It doesn’t matter if you have a $5 Milion dollar studio or a $500 ‘Studio’.
 
Well - being British, I thought I'd have a look. 7 out of the top 100 I have heard of, but many have multiple entries, so it seems that the only kind of music that makes it in that chart is a very specific demographic. NOTHING I would like, and certainly nothing that I would be interested in producing. Breaking into that market is probably NOT anything to do with producing good music in general, but producing music in a certain genre for a certain audience.

To be fair - I'm just too old to have any aspirations for the charts. I just checked the UK top 40 and it's exactly the same people. Apart from luck and a cracking marketing team of people for the socials, top charting success is something like playing the lottery.
 
I think the top 100 is, well, to Rob's point, meh.

When you look at success (which I interpret for top 100), I like to bring up my favorite young artist, Billy Strings. He is tearing it up. Live shows, lots of streams, not sure of his media sales, but it looks like he is doing OK.

I do think it is still work, it can be done and top 100 part, I like pop, but in a very selective way.
 
Well - being British, I thought I'd have a look. 7 out of the top 100 I have heard of, but many have multiple entries, so it seems that the only kind of music that makes it in that chart is a very specific demographic. NOTHING I would like, and certainly nothing that I would be interested in producing. Breaking into that market is probably NOT anything to do with producing good music in general, but producing music in a certain genre for a certain audience.

To be fair - I'm just too old to have any aspirations for the charts. I just checked the UK top 40 and it's exactly the same people. Apart from luck and a cracking marketing team of people for the socials, top charting success is something like playing the lottery.
Everyone is bringing valid points and I am learning from your diverse perspectives.

As for the "playing the lottery" thing, I think I have done the numbers and if you focus on pop music that could chart, produce 100 contending songs per year, at least you have 'valid tickets' to win that metaphorical lottery. You are right about it being "music in a certain genre for a certain audience" and that is my point - produce in that genre to that audience. However, looking closely at the charts will show there are several distinct demographics represented in the Hot 100. I can do music for a couple of those demographics, but not even close on others.

As for the marketing team and the hype machine, I think having a hard working artist, greatly invested in his/her own success, and bring his/her story to the world, brings an authenticity that no corporate marketing machine can simulate. I have heard authenticity is the hardest thing to fake.

As for age, I am 63 years old but I see no reason why I can't immerse myself in pop music and produce it. My age, education and experience gives me perspective. I do like listening to Billboard Hot 100 style of pop music. You can even crack the charts with heavily tattooed, fat, older guys like Teddy Swims or Jelly Roll, not every artist has to look like Sabrina Carpenter. Oliver Anthony shows that passion and authenticity can be the secret sauce. It doesn't have to be the big money marketing machine producing "SuperBowl style videos", just look at some of Chappell Roan's videos, they look low budget.

Panatae's idea of "Server Farm with 500 Individually ID’d computers Streaming your Music 4 or 5 times daily" is something I have the technical skill to do because I am a computer engineer with a Masters Degree for my day job. However, Spotify are acutely aware of the fake plays problem and have AI scanning for it. Spotify will sink an artist just on the suspicion of fake plays. Because people are doing fake plays of AI generated music to scam Spotify, it is fraud. You can be charged with wire fraud and can land yourself in prison over it. Prison does not work for my pleasant, upper middle class lifestyle. ?
 
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