The real problem with this question is that the only accurate answer is, "It depends". Depends on what? Well, that's where it gets a little tricky.
Let's say you wanna drive in a professional auto race. Is equipment important? Of course. You wouldn't drive a stock Kia in a Formula One race. But assuming you had a Formula One car available to you, the next question becomes kinda equally important.
How good a driver are you? Can you keep up with the pros? If you happen to be a very talented amateur, AND you have a Formula One car, you might not only keep up with them, but even win the race. Would that be rare? Yes, very rare, but not completely impossible.
So the answer to the "Commercial quality at home?" question can be answered by two other questions:
Do you own equipment (and a space) capable of producing "commercial quality" recordings?
And the second question to ask is: How good an engineer are you? Do you have a good feel as to how all the equipment works?
Unless you fall into the category of a "very talented amateur", a good engineer will beat you, both in a regular studio, or even using your own equipment, in your own house.
Why? Because they do this for a living, 24/7, day in, day out, for years. They know the signal paths, work-arounds, and tricks that will take you years to learn, if you're only spending a few hours a week working on your stuff.
So if you're a talanted amateur (with really good equipment), the answer is yes, you can probably make "commercial quality recordings at home", but it will be about as rare as a talented amateur winning his first Formula One race.
If you're not a "very talented amateur", what you will be able to do (fairly consistently) is make "good enough" recordings that you can sell at gigs, and on CDBaby, and to friends. It'll be about equal to a decent rough studio demo, which is often "good enough" for most uses.
The bottom line is, can you beat (or equal) my commercial studio (and all my toys) with a limited amount of home gear, by substituting raw talent for my years of experience? Yes, you can, if you're REALLY good, but it's gonna be rare, rather than a common occurance.
I think that's really the reality of your question.