Response to my Last Newsletter Editorial (23rd June issue)

[kidkage]

The most memorable thing I've been told on this site is : preparation + opportunity = luck
My life experiences make me agree 100%.
Dedication dictates progress you make in anything.

And as far as the whole "you have to be young" thing. That was the opposite for me . My "lucky" moment was cut short when I was a14 year old guitarist in a band with 16 year olds. Apparently you can be too young. Hindsight is definitely 20/20 though.

And this seems like a good place to say that I don't like adele.

 

[CFox]

And this seems like a good place to say that I don't like adele.

What about the Aussie version ?

 

[Armistice]

Just getting spammer trackbeast's thread off top spot...

 

[Lt. Bob]

Right....preparing yourself to be lucky.

that's it ....... luck is the key.

And Chater ......predestination? ...... implying the philosophy of "it was meant to be"?
Please ...


There's no such thing as predestination.
Things are not planned out in some voodoo room up in the sky.

That's like saying, if you were the only survivor of a plane crash, ''I just wasn't meant to die'.
Meant to die by whom?
No one makes any decisions about such things. You survived that plane crash by pure luck ...... nothing else.

 

[miroslav]

And predestination? ...... implying the philosophy of "it was meant to be"?



There's no such thing as predestination.
Things are not planned out in some voodoo room up in the sky.

That's like saying, if you were the only survivor of a plane crash, ''I just wasn't meant to die'.
Meant to die by whom?
No one makes any decisions about such things. You survived that plane crash by pure luck ...... nothing else.

Mmmmmm....not sure who you are directing all that at...?
I didn't say anything about "predestination" or "voodoo" or that something was "meant to be".

I think it's actually a pretty basic, simple philosophy.
If you sit home, down in your basement or garage...banging away on your piano, writing songs and recording them and waiting to be "lucky" (and crying about everyone else being lucky except you)...
...it's probably never going to happen.
Luck will never find you.

On the other hand...
If you get out and market yourself like mad, network with as many industry people that you can, bang on as many doors as possible...etc...etc...etc....
...then you have put yourself in a better position to be "lucky".
You have created opportunities for luck to find you.


Heck, if anything, the people that treat "luck" as something that just happens by chance to some and not to others...
...they are the ones implying that luck comes from some "voodoo" or "predestination".

 

[Lt. Bob]

Mmmmmm....not sure who you are directing all that at...?
I didn't say anything about "predestination" or "voodoo" or that something was "meant to be".

nor did I say you did or mention you in any way. Chater said she believes it's "predestination".

 

[miroslav]

nor did I say you did or mention you in any way. Chater said she believes it's "predestination".

You quoted me...and that's why I asked.
I wasn't sure if it was all directed at me or just the line under the quote.

Yeah, some people believe in "predestination" from some greater power...but I don't.
Granted, if you work your ass off trying to put yourself in better positions for success (whatever that means to you)...then I guess you could maybe view it as the creation of "predestination"...but I certainly don't believe that there is some list up in the sky with one side all the "lucky" people, and the other side those that will never be.

You ever notice how famous people often end up with famous children or at least with lots of oppotunites....
They are born into a situation of greater possibilities.
Is that "predestination" in some way...?

 

[Lt. Bob]

yeah, looking at it I see the confusion ..... I'll fix it.

 

[heatmiser]

I think there's probably more agreement on this then it might seem based on this thread because it is sort of common sense as was said above. Maybe it is semantics, because by definition, luck operates outside of one's self. It is not in any way dependant upon one's actions. If it were and you could influence it, it wouldn't be luck.

I don't know why you keep bringing up people jamming in their basement though Miro. I don't think the people stating the importance of luck with regard to success are stating or implying that those who make no effort to succeed and/or have no talent are equally likely to succeed as those who do. I don't think anyone believes it is a complete game of chance where anyone is equally as likely to become famous as the next regardless of what they do.

I also don't think such a sub set of garage-dwelling people really exist either. I know a lot of people that create music in their basement, garage, etc who do not think of, or aspire to becoming famous. Fortunately for everyone, music is it's own reward and a lot of people work very hard at it without any intention or desire to succeed in any measureable, commercial manner.

I thought what Bob was saying earlier in the thread (forgive me if I paraphrase incorrectly) is that based on his experience, he knows many talented and driven musicians who aren't super successful. If you extrapolate, it is reasonable to assume that there are 1000's of such people out there. All things being equal, out of that sub-set of hard working, talented people, luck is what predominantly propels some to stardom while most others remain behind. That part of it is chance.

Which is not to say that someone couldn't possibly get very lucky and achieve success without much talent and/or hard work, but I think that is no less likely than someone simply working hard and being talented and achieving great success without also experiencing random luck.

Everyone seems to experience good and bad luck. It's just that through your own actions, you can affect what kind of luck you are likely to experience when and if it comes your way. For the garage dwelling jammer, good luck might be finding a $5 bill sticking out under your amp. For the hard working, super talented person, good luck might be a chance meeting leading to a record deal. Both equally random.

 

[Lt. Bob]

I think there's probably more agreement on this then it might seem based on this thread because it is sort of common sense as was said above. Maybe it is semantics, because by definition, luck operates outside of one's self. It is not in any way dependant upon one's actions. If it were and you could influence it, it wouldn't be luck.

I don't know why you keep bringing up people jamming in their basement though Miro. I don't think the people stating the importance of luck with regard to success are stating or implying that those who make no effort to succeed and/or have no talent are equally likely to succeed as those who do. I don't think anyone believes it is a complete game of chance where anyone is equally as likely to become famous as the next regardless of what they do.

I also don't think such a sub set of garage-dwelling people really exist either. I know a lot of people that create music in their basement, garage, etc who do not think of, or aspire to becoming famous. Fortunately for everyone, music is it's own reward and a lot of people work very hard at it without any intention or desire to succeed in any measureable, commercial manner.

I thought what Bob was saying earlier in the thread (forgive me if I paraphrase incorrectly) is that based on his experience, he knows many talented and driven musicians who aren't super successful. If you extrapolate, it is reasonable to assume that there are 1000's of such people out there. All things being equal, out of that sub-set of hard working, talented people, luck is what predominantly propels some to stardom while most others remain behind. That part of it is chance.

Which is not to say that someone couldn't possibly get very lucky and achieve success without much talent and/or hard work, but I think that is no less likely than someone simply working hard and being talented and achieving great success without also experiencing random luck.

Everyone seems to experience good and bad luck. It's just that through your own actions, you can affect what kind of luck you are likely to experience when and if it comes your way. For the garage dwelling jammer, good luck might be finding a $5 bill sticking out under your amp. For the hard working, super talented person, good luck might be a chance meeting leading to a record deal. Both equally random.

well said. And yes, I know a buttload of poeple who are VERY good and have worked as hard as it's possible to work at it.
Hell, I know guys that were signed and toured their asses off and made amazing records ..... but just never caught that mysterious public interest in them.

And yes, there are absolutely thopusands, hell .... TENS of thousands of similar stories.

 

[chuckduffy]

I don't know why you keep bringing up people jamming in their basement though Miro. I don't think the people stating the importance of luck with regard to success are stating or implying that those who make no effort to succeed and/or have no talent are equally likely to succeed as those who do. I don't think anyone believes it is a complete game of chance where anyone is equally as likely to become famous as the next regardless of what they do.

I also don't think such a sub set of garage-dwelling people really exist either. I know a lot of people that create music in their basement, garage, etc who do not think of, or aspire to becoming famous. Fortunately for everyone, music is it's own reward and a lot of people work very hard at it without any intention or desire to succeed in any measureable, commercial manner.

Your post crystalized a lot of my thinking on the matter. I wasn't so sure what you meant by part of this - so I will just comment.

*I think there is a subset of 'basement dwelling guys' who are recording and live in a fantasy world where they are going to 'make it'. Hints of it come out in the forums once in a while. Someone will post a demo and ask if it's 'good enough'. People will point out mix problems, and the OP might ask something like 'yeah but can they fix that?'. And someone else will ask 'who is they?' and something along the lines of 'you know, the record company' will surface. Or people asking about mixing, mastering and selling the album that hasn't been recorded cause there are no songs yet. That kind of stuff.

*I think there is a subset of 'basement dwelling guys' who do it for the enjoyment and challenge. I think some other people have a hard time beliving that it's possible to create for those reasons alone. The idea being that of course - everyone secretly wants to 'make it', no matter what public face they put on it.....

 

[heatmiser]

You're probably right about that. The mere fact that I am not directly aware of such people doesn't mean they don't exist. That was weak on my part. It is always harder to prove that something doesn't exist than that it does.

I am willing to concede that there are people who anonymously perform music in their homes who somehow imagine that they will randomly become famous, but I don't think any of them are posting in this thread, nor is anyone advocating for them or saying that they desrve fame or are likely to achieve it (through luck or other means). I should merely have said that if they do in fact exist, they are irrelevant to this discussion.

And yes, for my part, I will admit that deep down, I probably do wish I was successful with music (or anything else for that matter!), but I don't think that has anything to do with why I play or record, certainly not conciously anyway.

 

[chuckduffy]

And yes, for my part, I will admit that deep down, I probably do wish I was successful with music (or anything else for that matter!), but I don't think that has anything to do with why I play or record, certainly not conciously anyway.

Good points I certainly wasn't suggesting you when I mentioned the 'of course' everyone secretly wants to make it. Its just an opinion I've come across a numver of times. But yeah - sure - deep down - me too , but at this point in my life I am in complete agreement. It has nothing to do with why I play or record. I was kind of psyched that one of my kids told me my version of 'The Fool Who Ripped His Pants' was better than the original Spongebob version. Of course I don't agree, but I was flattered.

 

[miroslav]

Your post crystalized a lot of my thinking on the matter. I wasn't so sure what you meant by part of this - so I will just comment.

*I think there is a subset of 'basement dwelling guys' who are recording and live in a fantasy world where they are going to 'make it'. Hints of it come out in the forums once in a while. Someone will post a demo and ask if it's 'good enough'. People will point out mix problems, and the OP might ask something like 'yeah but can they fix that?'. And someone else will ask 'who is they?' and something along the lines of 'you know, the record company' will surface. Or people asking about mixing, mastering and selling the album that hasn't been recorded cause there are no songs yet. That kind of stuff.

*I think there is a subset of 'basement dwelling guys' who do it for the enjoyment and challenge. I think some other people have a hard time believing that it's possible to create for those reasons alone. The idea being that of course - everyone secretly wants to 'make it', no matter what public face they put on it.....

I agree.
There are many who do have misguided notions of what it takes to "make it"...or that it just takes "luck" and little effort (or talent) on their part.

Some here have said that talent is not needed or not important...you just need to be "lucky".
That is IMO...total BS.
You do get the random freak where someone with little talent makes it, but it's not the norm.

AFA me bringing up people jamming in the basements (or garages or spare bedrooms)...well, who else would I bring up, the guys recording in pro studios? They've already made it!
I mean...here....we all are in our basements/garages/bedrooms...right?

Also...I never suggested that IF you have talent and work hard you SHOULD make it.
I know there are many talented musicians who work hard and never make it.
What I am saying is...if you just sit in your basement waiting for luck, but never honing you talent or working hard to promote/sell it...then your odds of making it are practiclally nil....and luck will never find you.
When I hear people in this thread say it's not really about talent and it's all about luck...it sounds like some of them are sitting and waiting.....

Heck, while I'm not in a "basement"...I am in a spare room/space for my studio, just like most of the guys here (actually, I wish I had a large basement instead just the smaller space I do have).
I do it mainly for personal satisfaction, and I will be the first to admit that I don't really market/sell my music actively...but then, I'm not expecting to get lucky, either.
I know that if I ever hope to sell a song, I will have to try a lot harder...before I get lucky.

 

[Lt. Bob]

When I hear people in this thread say it's not really about talent and it's all about luck...it sounds like some of them are sitting and waiting.....

that's cause you're not really in the professional end of playing. Yes, I know you've done gigs for pay and at one point were a weekend warrior.
Hell, maybe that's the case with most of the guys here at HR.
I, on the other hand, have done nothing else ..... never sat in a basement waiting ...... spent maybe 10 years on the road only seeing hotel rooms (when we could afford a hotel that is) and I've hung with .... hmmm, not gonna name drop but a LOT of biggies and semi biggies .....

None of the guys I work with are half hearted about their careers. I have two friends with #1 records to their credits ...... all the work in the world didn't turn that into more.
There's LOTS of talented players out there ...... LOTS.
And I'm not talking about the better players here at HR. I'm talking REALLY good.

But there is a VERY limited number of spots for new stars. The public can only support a limited number.
Inevitably the larger number of players, regardless of their talent or the quality of songs they write, don't make it big.

And people working in pro studios haven't 'made it'. I've worked in lots of pro studios and spent considerable time in the same studio Stevie Wonder did Songs in the Key of Life and Styx did their big album and whatever that big hit album Kansas did. I got paid for that.
I've also done work in big time studios in New Orleans and Nashville.

Hell, probably the only reason I'm not playing with biggies more than I do is when i had my offer to go to Europe (with a guy who won a grammy that very next year) was that I was divorcing my wife and my daughter was 1 year old. I figured she needed me more than I needed to be in Europe.
That, in itself, is an example of luck falling in a way that hindered me 'making it'. Sure, I could have been a thoughtless bastard and said "screw her' but I didn't.
Too bad but that's just the way it fell.

Talent is everywhere ..... it's common as hell ....... and hard work is everywhere too ....... tons of musicians work every waking second trying to get there.
But if only one 'star' slot is available for every 10,000 talented artists trying for it, 9,999 won't get it. No amount of work will make any difference.

 

[JimmyS1969]

Sounds like talent+luck=<1% chance of being a star. I'm fine with being myself, whatever that is worth...

 

[miroslav]

Talent is everywhere ..... it's common as hell ....... and hard work is everywhere too ....... tons of musicians work every waking second trying to get there.
But if only one 'star' slot is available for every 10,000 talented artists trying for it, 9,999 won't get it. No amount of work will make any difference.

Again...I'm not saying there are any guarantees that talent and hard work will get you there, but as you pointed out, all those people ARE talented and ARE working hard. I can't imagine that for those who do make it, there was no talent or hard work invloved...just "luck".
That's all I'm saying...

AFA playing out or recording...both require effort and talent if you aim higher.
Also, there's playing out just to entertain, which is what the pure cover bands mostly do, and I don't think any of them are thinking of "making it" as in getting a record deal...
...and then there's the bands who pursue the original music path.
Some do it just for their own pleasure, some do it to chase the record deal.
Recording is no different.

Lots of work involved if you want to chase the bigger dreams.
There's many ways to pursue your music interests and many levels/types of success, but without some talent and hard work to "set you up"...the odds of "luck" finding you are very small.
Of course, even with the talent and work, it may never find you...there's no guarantee.

 

[Armistice]

It's always interesting to me that some semi-talented run of the mill bands in the US (IMHO) can seemingly sustain meaningful careers and make money doing so over a long period (I assume they are!). Luck, hard work, both, whatever... they're doing it.

Happens in all countries and I'm sure LT is across the economics of it all in a way that that none of the rest of us are.

Now, for a second, imagine the situation in a country with the same land mass as the US but 1/15th the population, with huge distances between urban centres and with the most urbanised population of any first world country (ie. there's nothing in the middle but heat and dust so you can't really string together a tour of smaller centres and make a financial success of it).

Tie this in with our renowned "cultural cringe" where we automatically dismiss local talent just because it's local, and flock to anyone from overseas, just because they're from overseas (on average), and if you think it's hard where you are, just imagine what it's like where I am....

Damn near impossible!

Which is why I've given up the pursuit and am hoping to ride to world fame on the back of a small toy bear I'm going to put in all my videos from this point on in the hope that he goes viral because he's cute! LOL... I'm dreaming, of course, but we all do...

 

[Lt. Bob]

Again...I'm not saying there are any guarantees that talent and hard work will get you there, but as you pointed out, all those people ARE talented and ARE working hard. I can't imagine that for those who do make it, there was no talent or hard work invloved...just "luck".
.

and again, I didn't say that people with no talent who suck are just as likely to make it as those that have talent and work hard (with some exceptions) ... obviously you have to have some ability to play and sing or whatever you do ...... what I HAVE said is that working hard and having talent isn't much of a factor in making it since there is a vast overabundance of both. It's luck .... pure and simple.

 

[Greg_L]

You don't have to be good or bad. You just have to be lucky.