The next sample might be off by that amount the other way and so on.
I get what you'e saying...well, probably not, otherwise I'd simply be saying, "OK, thanks, I get it", and be moving on with my life

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I understand that any single sample is irrelevant, and that even if one single full cycle within Nyquist were off, that it would probably be audibly irrelevant.
What still trips me up though is how the probability of the whole thing works. While over the course of the entire recording, any errors will indeed average out because half will be as far over as the other half are under, all that seems to guarantee is that the overall RMS will not be affected.
But at Nyquist, like you say, it takes slightly over 2 samples per frequency cycle to accurately reconstruct that cycle later on. While the probability is that the erros will "balance out" over time, I don't see any guarantee that two or three samples or even eight samples in a row will even come close to balancing out. One could easily have 8 samples in a row that are undervalued - equalling a full 3-4 cycles that are "wrong" - followed by 8 samples and 3-4 cycles that are overvalued and equally wrong in the other direction. So we have 6-8 cycles in a row that are reproduced wrongly even though over the cycles the overall average is balanced and accurate. Then repeat those 8-sample couplets over again, and we have now doubled the number of cycles that are inaccurately reproduced. And so on ad mauseum.
That can even virtually as easily be stretched out over a string of 1000 or 10,000 or 50,000 samples before the probability distribution between overs and unders actually breaks even, and not just 16. I just don't get how one can guarantee any kind of audible accuracy due to probability distribution under those circumstances.
There's probably some kind of mathematical "magic filter" built into the Nyquist reconstruction algorithms that takes care of that issue. But I'll be damned if I can find any explanation or discussion of Nyquist whatsoever that actually explains in fairly lay terms what is acctually going on. We either have a choice of that basic but inaccurate "stairstep" baloney, or we have an engineering thesis that's nothing but pages upon pages of equations.
They can explain quantum physics in books for lay people that, while maybe not scientifically 100% accurate, explain things well enough to get a handle on without having to do the calculus. You'd think someone could do this with Nyquist information theory, which is MUCH simpler mathematically.
And yeah, I completly and totally agoree that from a practical standpoint, all this talk about voltage/decibel resolution is much ado about nothing - except for the excess of misinformation out there. I'd really would just like to have a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms behind it all anyway, at the least for my own edification, and at the most to be able to try and correct the misinformation at the core and be able to understand and explain WHY.
Not everybody cares about the why or the how, they just want to know the what; I know that. "Don't tell me how a compressor works, just tell me what to set it to" and all that crap. But I'm wired in a way where the "whys" and "hows" are fundamental to understanding and mastering the subject.
So, sorry for that mini-rant, and sorry for not asking the easy questions

. If this makes someone's brain hurt or strikes them as irrelevant, they can always change the channel...especially considering that the questions in the OP of this thread were already answered back on the first page

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G.