Do you think the music industry will survive in the near future?

I feel like a stalker Dinty.

Yeah, I play drums with my teeth.

Contrary to your position though, if there's outside music, I can't hear anything else. Voice-overs, conversation, or the excellent tune I was just playing in my head!

Really pisses me off when some subs at a stoplight screws up the excellent inter-cranial jam session going on in my head.
 
I always joke that if I'm doing the down and dirty with a girl, and a song I like comes on the radio, I'll have to stop and pay attention to the song. Of course, I don't think I'm actually joking on that one.

I treat music a lot differently than most people. It hits me in ways that most people just, frankly, do not understand. I don't even try and explain it to them, since its impossible. There's really no other real world metaphor I can come up with. Thus I'm one of the few people who still sits down and listens to music. Even while on the computer listening to mp3's, I'll frequently stop what I'm doing and enjoy the rest of the tune. It is difficult for me to do anything else.
 
Im excited to see the future of music. I think the truly talented musicians will become more identifiable just from the shear excitement of their fans. I believe live shows are going to become the primary form of income for many successful acts coming up. You'll see the rise of quality musicianship combined with showmanship, and that's something they can control the revenue on. The shows will be so good and intense for the concertgoer that the real value of the music will translate to the live experience of seeing the artist. You can't steal memories.

When someone comes back from a music festival and is raving about 3 new bands they just saw, and they have previously earned you're musical respect, your going to check out that bands music, which you'll find free somewhere, if the band isn't already giving it away, and you'll be that much more likely to go to their show when they're playing downtown with an opening act for $10. Music is becoming free, but the feeling and memories of seeing it in person will continue to be profitable.

Then there's the idea of Live Pay Per View Music. The audio/video compression technology and streaming bandwidths are getting there very quickly.
 
I think the music industry will come crashing down in flames as they sue everyone they can in their last death throes for everything imaginable.

I predict the music industry will be moving towards decentralization and self ownership. It'll be good when it does.
 
Its cyclic, to be honest.

The independent home musician dude is thriving now, but come a few years and musicians will start to get tired of doing EVERYTHING themselves and businesses will form that will help artists distribute and shit, and the labels will come back.

I think labels are a good idea, just not in their current Big 4/5 form.

That's pretty likely. . . kind of like society in general. It operates on the same cycles.
 
I read this thing Duff Mckagan wrote and he said that in 97 Napster, who was rolling in money from sponsors, offered the major labels a percentage of all money they made to give to the artists and whatever else. Apparently the majors fucked up, refused, and as a result of that now people are downloading more than ever, and any chance the labels and artists had to make money is forever gone.
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random story: Last year someone verbally shit on me for not download and not condoning downloading and at one point said "I dont have money for music, this is the only way i can get it"
I hate when people say that.
I want a Les Paul Custom. Should I go steal one?
:spank:
 
I read this thing Duff Mckagan wrote and he said that in 97 Napster, who was rolling in money from sponsors, offered the major labels a percentage of all money they made to give to the artists and whatever else. Apparently the majors fucked up, refused, and as a result of that now people are downloading more than ever, and any chance the labels and artists had to make money is forever gone.
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random story: Last year someone verbally shit on me for not download and not condoning downloading and at one point said "I dont have money for music, this is the only way i can get it"
I hate when people say that.
I want a Les Paul Custom. Should I go steal one?
:spank:

I wouldn't be surprised. It's beause the major labels don't want an alternative channel for distributing music that they can't control. In the past, even if you were indie, you still had to sell through a major label if you wanted to compete with major label artists. Now, with alternative modes of distribution, it poses a competition for the majors that seriously undermines their ability to call the shots. They will no longer be able to rest on their laurels. They will have to compete with non-majors for the same customers, whereas previously they had no such competition.


As for the morality of downloading and the "stealing analogy", I think it's largely flawed. The concept that an idea should be considered property is a bit strange. How can an idea be property? It doesn't exist, it has no scarcity or physical limits. It cannot be removed from your care, or moved anywhere for that matter. If an idea is spread, it doesn't reduce the available quantity of that idea left. You can't deplete an idea. It doesn't exist but in our minds. It can only be represented and that representation be reproduced. The purpose for copyright law was meant to be a means to stop other artists from coming in and re-recording their song a week after it was released and calling it their own. . . giving a period of time where the artist could be the sole person known for the work before it is passed off into the public domain to be mangled with and improved on by others. What it was meant to do was not to criminalize consumers who share music with each other non-commercially. Sure, there might be somewhat of an effect economically if people cease to purchase albums. That's merely just a change in the music market, not some hotbed of criminality. The nature of technology is that physical media is not necessary. If you steal a CD, you are stealing an actual tangable product. This is something that had manufacturing value and scarity attached to it. You have physically removed property from someone else unwillingly, thus you have stolen it. The key point is that it CAN be physically taken. An idea, whether in musical form or word of mouth, can not be removed from your posession.

Another argument deals with the senses. Can you say that it is stealing to look at a sculpture in a museum that can be seen from a window without paying the price of admission? Would it be stealing to peer into the window and look at it? What about viewing a picture that someone took of the sculpture on their vacation? Should it be argued that they are morally obliged to book travel to the museum where the sculpture is kept to pay admission to see it properly? Is it a moral crime to look at the picture? Would this be the same thing as walking into the museum and walking out with the sculpture? Would it be considered stealing to view this sculpture, even if the artist has identcal copies that you can buy for your own? After all, you are just looking at a picture of it, you didn't physically remove the sculpture. How can it be different with auditory perception. Really, the argument of anti-file sharing people is that this person is stealing because they are listening to something that they didn't purchase and thus aren't authorized to listen to, even though a physical copy is available to buy if they wish to have it. They did not desire to purchase the physical product you are selling for whatever reason and so they opted to merely "look at a picture" of it instead. You are in effect saying that the perception of your art is something that can be and should be controlled - that it's an immoral and criminal act to listen to something unless you grant permission for it to be listened to. This person is not taking your physical product which holds your idea (the CD), they are just "taking a picture" of it because the technology exists for them to do so, and showing their friends because they enjoy your art and wish others to enjoy it as well.

Thus: Is file sharing stealing? No. If you want to talk economically, that's a better argument with some debate on both sides to be considered, but as a moral question: There is absolutely nothing immoral about file sharing, nor should it be "illegal". It is not stealing, and people who share music should not be punished, but should be provided with new ways to economically contribute for their enjoyment of the art. It is the fault of the musicians and labels for not adapting to new technologies and consumer attitudes. What you need to do is to provide another kind of physical product that your fans will want to own - not to just insist that they pay for the right to hear the ideas themselves. If you refuse to do anything other than cling to technologies that your customers consider obsolete and not worth purchasing, then you are guilty of being an unwise businessman, and that's the only place where the guilt lies. Adapt and innovate. Any time an industry changes there is a flux period. it's the people who take the reigns and pioneer the way that become the big boys next time around while the old dinosaurs fade away.
 
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Here's a video about cars. You might think that this has nothing to do with the music industry. I'd say it does because it shows what is going to happen in China in the next 20 years. That is going to be the main thing that happens in the next while.

I expect the amount of change we've seen in the last 100+ years to occur in the next few decades. The Chinese will be hungry for what they don't have, and one thing they don't have is the kind of music we make. They will buy rock, pop, country and jazz. Because of that, the music scene will be much larger than any of us probably expect.

In the USA, there's 9 cities over 1 million people, in China 122, and in 20 years there will be 220 cities with over a million people in China. There's cities in China bigger than New York that you've never heard of - many of them. That's the market.

It's gonna look like Blade Runner there, and they will all be rockin' to music, so the music industry will probably be many 1000's of times as big as it is now, although people tend to judge things on what they know so most people here think that the music industry is dead. No way.

 
Here's something interesting if you've got some time it's very interesting:

Todd Rundgren: It's time for the music industry to evolve.

Part One:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DqXbkKwCHj8

Part Two:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-a6ogGFV-8

Part Three:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2U1H8KbCEcU

Excellent... but i liked only the half 2nd and 3rd part... when he actually start talking about the music industry. But i can't know for sure if that model could really work, specially for independent or emerging artists.
 
Here's a video about cars. You might think that this has nothing to do with the music industry. I'd say it does because it shows what is going to happen in China in the next 20 years. That is going to be the main thing that happens in the next while.

I expect the amount of change we've seen in the last 100+ years to occur in the next few decades. The Chinese will be hungry for what they don't have, and one thing they don't have is the kind of music we make. They will buy rock, pop, country and jazz. Because of that, the music scene will be much larger than any of us probably expect.

In the USA, there's 9 cities over 1 million people, in China 122, and in 20 years there will be 220 cities with over a million people in China. There's cities in China bigger than New York that you've never heard of - many of them. That's the market.

It's gonna look like Blade Runner there, and they will all be rockin' to music, so the music industry will probably be many 1000's of times as big as it is now, although people tend to judge things on what they know so most people here think that the music industry is dead. No way.

So you are saying... We should start making music in Chinese ??? :D hahahahha... just joking (em I?)... Great video, thanks for sharing it... BTW, i'm learning chinese right now (no joking)... is hard, that's all i can tell....

Regards. (zàijiàn)
 
So you are saying... We should start making music in Chinese ???...

No, no, not at all... you missed the point - I'm saying we should all order Chinese food! :)

DSC05024.jpg
 
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