Future Vintage?

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nate_dennis

nate_dennis

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I've been wondering about this lately so I thought I'd throw it out to you all...

These days there is a huge market for quality guitars from the 40s-70s. Do you think that in 40 years or so, there will be a market for "vintage 2008" guitars? Or are we so far into the mass market age that todays "new" will only be "used" in a few years. I hope that makes sense.
 
Considering a lot of '70's guitars are of a lower quality than present day cheap-o's, the business of hype is in full swing, at least as long as the current dealers are still in operation.
 
It's almost certain that some of the guitars being made today will achieve collector's status and command high values in the future. Which ones, however, would be very dicey to predict.
 
What makes something "vintage" anyway? Is it some special quality or design that makes a guitar (or anything for that matter) stand out as exceptional? Is it the look, there have been a lot of unique body designs. Is it "fad" appeal, like the 80s metal look? Is it the rareity of a particular model? Who knows? Maybe some day in the future there will be a retro phase when everyone wants something from circa 2000-2010, I don't know, I'm a guitar player... not a psychic. ;)
 
In the world of guitars "Vintage" generally means '60s or older. I heard someone say 25 years but 1984 Les Pauls are not considered "vintage". So maybe to qualify as vintage a guitar needs to be 40 years old. I don't really know but that's the sense I get from the vintage scene.

As far as collectibility goes the number produced is probably the biggest factor. Special issues will hold their value or appreciate much better than a standard issue piece. Starting with a quality instrument first always helps but some of the shitboxes produced in limited quantities in the '60s are fetching surprising amounts now. I don't know that that phenomenon will repeat forty years from now but it's probably safe to say that a Jimmy Page reissue Les Paul will be worth substantially more than a USA series Standard in 2050.


lou
 
"Vintage" markets are fad-driven. In particular, the popularity of the Les Paul sunburst has been traced back to individual musicians who publicly played them, and don't forget that it was considered really "inside" knowledge to know the difference between an SG Les Paul and the earlier models. Certainly, Gibson had no clue about the Les Paul -- and its popularity stemmed from its use in a style of music, and in musical formats, that did not exist when the LP was designed and first produced.

In 40 years, we have no idea what the intervening years will have produced in the way of popular entertainers or their instruments. I suspect that guitars will be pretty quaint in 2049, just as 1910's banjos and 1920's mandolins are today. Sure, there will be aficionados who own and treasure them, but the current guitar bubble is more like the cabbage patch doll phenomenon: everybody, not just specialists in an arcane field, is buying guitars and collecting and whatnot. Forty years from now, the kids of every young guitar enthusiast alive today will be adults, and you KNOW they'd rather eat worms than do what the old man did.

So live in the moment: all we can be sure of is that, down the road, nobody will remember or care about our toys. Buy a real player, and you'll be rewarded now, not in some pie-in-the-sky utopia to come.
 
You never know.

It's often about some artist who picks one up. The Ramones did wonders for the value of Mosrites. Jack white did it for Res-O-Glass Airlines.

Sometimes it's about whatever the generation dreams about as teenagers. That's what they go back and buy when the mid-life crisis hits.

In twenty years it might be all about the Ibanez Iceman or something.

I don't see LPs and Strats tanking in value but they sure have sold a bunch of them. There are so many limited editions out there that I don't see how they differentiate themselves.

If I had to bet I'd probably go with small shop craftsman made guitars, but mostly the best investment is in buying guitars that you love and letting the chips fall where they may. The real value is your enjoyment.
 
In 40 years we'll all be dead, civilization will have collapsed and we'll be trading pigs for canned beans. Probably guitars won't have so much value then.
 
Lt. Bob said:
In 40 years we'll all be dead, civilization will have collapsed and we'll be trading pigs for canned beans. Probably guitars won't have so much value then.
Click to expand...

I don't plan to be trading pigs for canned beans, at least, not after I'm dead.

I don't even own a pig.
 
I don't want one...I already have canned beans, so I can skip that step. Roy Blount, Jr says that pigs are more popular than cows, in the South, because they don't take up so much room around the house.
 
Lt. Bob said:
In 40 years we'll all be dead, civilization will have collapsed and we'll be trading pigs for canned beans. Probably guitars won't have so much value then.
Click to expand...

Depends on how badly you need firewood, I reckon. ;)
 
Joking aside, I believe Danelectros could be a pretty good bet. You won't see a massive return, but the late 90s reissues have already increased in price significantly
 
32-20-Blues said:
Joking aside, I believe Danelectros could be a pretty good bet. You won't see a massive return, but the late 90s reissues have already increased in price significantly
Click to expand...
Funny you mentioned those. I was thinking of them as well. They're kinda quirky and cheap enough you could get a couple and put 'em away. I doubt you'd lose money.


lou
 
Milnoque said:
In twenty years it might be all about the Ibanez Iceman or something.
Click to expand...

Right now, it's already the Ibanez Jem. Hell, even my Ibanez Universe would be worth a fair chunk right now (it's one of the scarcer ones, a UV7PWH, one of maybe 850-ish) had it not been pretty thoroughly abused by a former owner. That's just fine by me, though - it's got all the vibe of an old Fender, and I don't feel bad about playing it. :D
 
Sky Blue Lou said:
In the world of guitars "Vintage" generally means '60s or older. I heard someone say 25 years but 1984 Les Pauls are not considered "vintage". So maybe to qualify as vintage a guitar needs to be 40 years old. I don't really know but that's the sense I get from the vintage scene.

As far as collectibility goes the number produced is probably the biggest factor. Special issues will hold their value or appreciate much better than a standard issue piece. Starting with a quality instrument first always helps but some of the shitboxes produced in limited quantities in the '60s are fetching surprising amounts now. I don't know that that phenomenon will repeat forty years from now but it's probably safe to say that a Jimmy Page reissue Les Paul will be worth substantially more than a USA series Standard in 2050.


lou
Click to expand...

You're right lou a 1984 les paul is not considered vintage. On the other hand a 1984 guild is considered vintage. I think some of the value of older guitars depends on where they were made and who owned the name at the time they were made.
Like strats for instance. For years the only strats that were considered vintage were the pre-CBS ones...1965 and older. That why I bought my '66 for $150...it was a worthless post CBS strat at the time. It was simply a used strat not a collectable strat. ditto on Norlin era gibson pauls. Gibson acoustics from the mid 70's are supposedly not up to snuff buildwise and don't command the prices that the older ones do. On the other hand guild were in their heyday in the late 70's through the early 90's...when they were being built in the Westerly R.I. plant. A westerly built Guild is more desireable than a tacoma build guild.
Another factor is who played a particular model...a '69 strat is valuable because Hendrix played a '69 strat.
 
Hey Jimi. How ya' been? I'll bet that '66 Strat is worth a bit more than $150 these days.


lou
 
Sky Blue Lou said:
Funny you mentioned those. I was thinking of them as well. They're kinda quirky and cheap enough you could get a couple and put 'em away. I doubt you'd lose money.


lou
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm working on this plan. Trouble is, I keep playing the damn things too much.
 
32-20-Blues said:
Joking aside, I believe Danelectros could be a pretty good bet. You won't see a massive return, but the late 90s reissues have already increased in price significantly
Click to expand...

Very true,I have two Danelectro's I bought fot $150 apiece new and now I see the same guitars selling for over $200 used at resale shops.I got rid of a foam green U2 years ago and I still regret it.:(
 
I have an early 70's Tele,is that "vintage"?
I have a 25YO fender acoustic,is that "vintage"?
 
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