Massive RAM, SSD and GPU price increases ahead

[TalismanRich]

I don't know if people have noticed but the prices of RAM and SSDs have increased by 3 to 4 times what it was a year ago. Where you could buy a 16GB stock of DDR4 memory for $25 to 35 dollars last year, you will find prices are in the $100+ range. This is a far cry from the trend for the past 20 years, where prices have dropped while the size has continued to rise from 256K to 1MB, 1GB, 4GB to 8GB and beyond. I remember buying a 32 KILOBYTE SDRAM for around $65 or $70. That was in the 80s.

I paid $37 for a 16GB stick of Crucial RAM at the end of 2024. That same memory is now priced from $110 to $130. The 500GB Samsung SSD that I got for my sister's computer in June for $58 is now $140.

Doing a bit of investigation, some of it is tariff related, but much of it is driven by all the AI data center craze. These things take a lot of memory storage, while it's not the same as your standard DDR memory stick, it uses up the manufacturing capacity. Prices from Nov to Jan were up nearly 100%.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next year or so. Upping a system to 32 or 64GB for audio and video production is going to be pricey for the near future. I think I'll stick with what I've got for a while.

 

[PorterhouseMusic]

I noticed. Que sera

 

[Steenamaroo]

Yeah, it's mostly data centre supply for AI expansion.
The real concern is it's not just a short term imbalance - It's a long term plan.
Crucial, for example, is closing down consumer manufacture and sale next month.

Most likely it'll get much worse.

On top of that, as you say, data centres aren't using the same hardware that consumers would so it's not like
there's the option of the consumer market being flooded with cheap gear in a few years when tech advances or bubble bursts or whatever.

Hard to say how big the impact will be, and how widespread, but I expect it'd be a bit like the supply shortages we saw
during/after Covid, maybe with vehicles, phones, computers, smart devices etc rising dramatically in price, offering lowering specs
or, in the case of new releases, being delayed or simply not happening.

 

[TalismanRich]

I've used a lot of Crucial RAM and SSDs over the years. They have made reliable stuff. I have had a couple of instances where I ordered generic RAM sticks and they didn't work but the Crucial worked perfectly.

Things won't really change until new FABs come online. That takes time, you can't build these things in a few months. A couple of the major RAM manufacturers think it will be 2028 before things ease. Google, Meta, OpenAI and Microsoft all have contracted with RAM makers and have first dibs on memory.

The one thing that I wonder is if things might turn south, much like the EV battery market. 2 years ago, there were plans to build multiple Lithium Ion battery plants around the country. A huge Blue Oval/SK (Ford) plant in central Kentucky started manufacturing a few months ago, and was just shut down for a year to retool into making commercial storage products. SK even pulled out of the venture. AESC has done the same in Tennessee.

If the AI boon slows, there could be lots of product capacity freed up. It will depend a lot on how profitable all this AI proves to be.

 

[PorterhouseMusic]

Yeah, it's mostly data centre supply for AI expansion.
The real concern is it's not just a short term imbalance - It's a long term plan.
Crucial, for example, is closing down consumer manufacture and sale next month.

Most likely it'll get much worse.

On top of that, as you say, data centres aren't using the same hardware that consumers would so it's not like
there's the option of the consumer market being flooded with cheap gear in a few years when tech advances or bubble bursts or whatever.

Hard to say how big the impact will be, and how widespread, but I expect it'd be a bit like the supply shortages we saw
during/after Covid, maybe with vehicles, phones, computers, smart devices etc rising dramatically in price, offering lowering specs
or, in the case of new releases, being delayed or simply not happening.

Not to wander too far off topic - but It sure looks like this supply/demand issue for RAM/SSD's/GPU's will be mirrored by an increase in electricity rates for the foreseeable future as the demand for data centers and AI advancement continues.

Rich's post caused me to go look at current stock pricing for "already assembled" computers. Prices look up to me - but I'm reading we can expect that they're going to go up in price considerably in the near term.

Not sure if this is at all related - last year I had purchased one of those cheap (and reportedly somewhat unreliable) gaming computers to run Reaper (AAOSTAR GEM 12). They were a dime a dozen on Amazon for the last few years. The GEM line seem to have been replaced by the "MACO" line - but many if not most of the offerings either have no RAM or SSD - or one or the other.

 

[TalismanRich]

Last fall, before I converted my old Core I5-4570 machine that I use with Reaper and PowerDirector to Win 11, I almost bought a Geekom Mini IT13. Intel I9-13900HK, 16GB and 1TB SSD was running $479. Now that same computer is $699. Snooze You Lose! A $220 increase in 4 months is pretty hefty. That's 45%, and certainly all of it is memory related. With 32GB and 2 TB, it's $849.

Still, that's cheap compared to where we started. It's 60% of what I paid for my 386SX-25 with 64KB of RAM, a 20MB hard drive and 2 floppy drives!!! But that computer weighs about 25 lbs with the big tower case, so on a per pound basis I guess it still wins.

How spoiled are we?

 

[PorterhouseMusic]

How spoiled are we?

Very. I bought a new Lenovo business class laptop, that fully loaded GEM 12 mini gaming PC (to run as a dedicated Reaper machine), and a brand new Toyota Tundra 4x4 long-bed super-crew in early 2025 - got smokin deals on all 3. I didn't know it at the time - but my timing could not have been better.