I think he'll stay. The Cards can't (or won't) make the 10 year, $300 million offer that he'll likely draw on the open market, but I think he genuinely loves St. Louis and wants to have a one-team career. I also think the Cards know that and will add a post-career ownership interest in the team to their best cash offer.
He probably feels the business need to get as much as he can--for the sake of maintaing upward salary pressure for all the other MLB players, but he doesn't need the cash. If they give him say, 10% of the team in addition to the regular contract--he saves face by getting his true market value, and ensures an even more secure future in a city he and his family love to call home.
At least that's what I've been telling the Cards' owners over drinks at the club.
