Future of analog gear used prices

leddy

leddy

Well-known member
Sweetbeat's thread about having a lot of gear made me wonder about its investment value (or lack of).

There is a finite amount of gear, so supply can only diminish. That's good for those of us holding gear. The other side is demand. Will demand hold steady enough, or at least decline at a slower rate than supply and push values of well-maintained gear higher?

I don't have a ton of gear, but I am sitting on my Nagra IV-S, which can fetch around $2k in its condition. I'm wondering if that equity is at risk, or if it would likely climb. I'd prefer to keep it, but if people really lose interest in analog and values fall, I'd rather put that money into mics and stick to using my cheaper Tascam decks.

Anyone have thoughts?
 
I understand your position (see the thread I started about the TASCAM gear in Cleveland). I often wonder that same thing. This all could die out with our generation, those of us that grew up on tape. We need to educate the kids of today. Get them to try it, then they'll be hooked.

I sound like a drug dealer....:D
 
I think that what will end up happening is just like you said, the supply will diminish, the demand will either hold steady or actually climb a little. I don't see tape going away. With new companies making NEW tape I really believe that you will hold some equity in your deck/decks. The other side may end up being . . . . a company may come along and start making higher end decks again. I really think that may happen. It'll be a boutique company, and they wont make/sell tons but what they do sell will be high priced. Just a thought.
 
A crystal ball question deserves a crystal ball answer.

The trend is for prices to drop on virtually everything that is not a genuine collector's item or ones that are so high end and in such good shape that they might drop in value a bit slower.

But in the end, none of this is even close to be considered an investment! Investments are supposed to rise in value over time. And from what I've seen, there's not a single piece of analog recording gear that now sells for more then its original MSRP. Most of it sells at 10 cents on the dollar if its still working and even less if it isn't.

Cheers! :)
 
What you say is true Ghost- I don't think ANY of us are in this for the investment. My point was more towards, will anybody be using this equipment in the future and place ANY value on it at all....

Or, are we all dinosaurs munching happily on our magnetic tape leaves as we happen to glance up into the sky to see a flaming ball of ones and zeros hurtling toward our cold blooded analog arses?

(Actually, I have my feet in both worlds-total disclosure)
 
The Ghost of FM said:
But in the end, none of this is even close to be considered an investment! Investments are supposed to rise in value over time. And from what I've seen, there's not a single piece of analog recording gear that now sells for more then its original MSRP. Most of it sells at 10 cents on the dollar if its still working and even less if it isn't.
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But it's not uncommon to see prices fall between the point of being "new" and the point where people realize it is "collectable". Then prices go up. Certain cars would certainly fall in this category. Maybe we are in that low zone before things build?

guido #2 said:
Or, are we all dinosaurs munching happily on our magnetic tape leaves as we happen to glance up into the sky to see a flaming ball of ones and zeros hurtling toward our cold blooded analog arses?
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This is more likely...:o
 
guido #2 said:
I understand your position (see the thread I started about the TASCAM gear in Cleveland). I often wonder that same thing. This all could die out with our generation, those of us that grew up on tape. We need to educate the kids of today. Get them to try it, then they'll be hooked.

I sound like a drug dealer....:D
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That's exactly why I'm so keen to get our MCI back in action. I have a handful of 20-somethings interested in tape (or at least, the sound or idea of it) and it's hip with a subset of the indie rock crowd. I'm actually of the opinion that, at least as far as professional analog gear (the big tape machines and consoles of the 70s-90s) I think it's probably bottomed out at this point, as as there's still limited demand and limited supply, well, I'm hoping to invest in some of this stuff while the prices are still rock bottom and the indie kids still dig it, but investment isn't in the gear value as much as in the revenue it could generate. It's up to guys like me in mid-level commercial project studios to revive that kind of thing since this stuff all takes much more maintenance and space than the typical amateur user would ever take on and the few big studios that are left are either priced out of the indie realm or dumped analog or both. As for the prices, the 90's consoles and some of the big 80's tape machines are still coming down for a little while but I suspect we're soon to be in an era where it all has nowhere to go but up. FWIW I'm 29 and really want to keep this great old gear available to musicians in my area (Wisconsin is a more indie-friendly area that you'd expect, with a surprisingly organic approach to rock music--at least some of 'em). I expect that the marriage of recording tracks to tape for sonic and performance benefits then dumping to ProTools for the editing and economical storage will be pretty popular. I also do agree with Nate that it's possible a boutique company will make a new deck again, but the economic issues may be dubious--it's gonna be very expensive, and big label money for big (make that huge) ticket gear doesn't and probably won't exist. Mayeb specialist parts machinist/suppliers are a better bet. As for "new" decks, these small boutique guys rebuilding/refurbing the old decks, the MCIs, Studers, Otaris...that's probably a smart place to be.

I don't hold out as much hope for the consumer/pro-sumer level tape stuff, but some of the geeky indie kids still seem interested in the mixers, at least in my sliver of view. Wish I hadn't lost my kool old wood'n'metal Kelsey 16+3 to a flood!
 
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Monetary value is ALWAYS leveraged by demand, and demand is driven by the size of the pool and the relative commonaility of the item or genre. Not a lot of people interested in using or owning/operating this stuff. We are a niche group in a niche group...I mean, recording studios in general (and I'm including the home project studios as well...) are a relatively rare thing. And on top of that, at least in America, it is a niche of a niche of a niche because arts are relatively undervalued compared to many other parts of the world. Cars on the other hand are much more utilized and understood...the "pool" is MUCH larger so the potential for collector interest is much greater. I mean, really. My MM-1000? First 16-track machine? Less than 500 made? And its a hot-rod right? Totally overbuilt, idiosyncratic, discrete electronics, and holds an odd place in mutlitrack history from a company that many times defined pro audio. If my MM-1000 was a car it'd be collectible don't you think? And I got it for $300 with a truckload of spares, maintenance equipment, the matching 34U rack, a 440C with great potential...that was a good deal but honestly I don't think that its ever going to climb much, especially when you consider that the MM-1000 was around $70K in today's dollars when new.
 
I'm pretty sure that we are in the "rebirth" of the analog recording equipment era. 10 - 15 years ago studio's they were throwing out all there analog equipment. I'm not just talking about reel to reel tapes either... whole machine working or not were seen as obsolete. Keep in mind (especially here in Australia) not all studios were recording huge world famous bands... analog recording gear used to be used for films, advertisements, radio, all kinds of audio products. The moment the studios could afford the upgrade to digital they bought it and threw away all their old analog gear.

Pretty much all the people I have bought analog gear from have told me "oh I work in a studio and they threw out all the analog machines about 5 years ago and I just managed to hold onto this one so your lucky".

Now, thanks to eBay, craiglist etc. analog gear is actually worth something again. It is actually sought after, there is actually a store in melbourne that is dedicated to selling analog tape. Vinyl records have made a huge comeback. Working machines are going for anywhere between 100 - 1000 dollars. Recording studios are actually buying back or restoring their 2" tape machines.

I will be very very surprised if in 10 years our machines are worth more than they are now. And I am (to the best of my knowledge) certain that in 20 years and on... we will be (unfortunately) throwing these machines out or clinging on to something that will be worthless to anyone but ourselves.

That's the key though, as long as they are worth something to you (and you got people selling tape stock) I'm happy. But if your waiting for a moment to cash in on your analog gear... I'd say now is the time to sell.
 
Doubtful there is any investment value in used analog gear.

I believe it's purchased for the enjoyment and its unique qualities.

I know a few folks who bought their Ferrari's as an "investment" to be very sorely disappointed!

Buy to enjoy!
 
I suspect analog recording gear is going to develop into a bubble market, much like vintage guitars and amps have. The "bubble" is mostly at it's least-inflated point, but will inflate as time passes- perhaps to eye-popping prices. Then, the bubble will burst, and those who bought when the market was it's hottest will be really pissed... and it couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of guys- this kind of stuff should be bought and owned to be played, not to be part of a speculator's playing the market.

But I have read several times that gear, cars, boats, etc. almost never out-perform the investment market- your money is better parked in a modest mutual fund, than in vintage guitars or cars, strictly from an investment standpoint.
 
stevieb said:
this kind of stuff should be bought and owned to be played, not to be part of a speculator's playing the market.

But I have read several times that gear, cars, boats, etc. almost never out-perform the investment market- your money is better parked in a modest mutual fund, than in vintage guitars or cars, strictly from an investment standpoint.
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I don't think anyone here is actually talking about using analog gear as a retirement plan or investment fund. I, for one, find it very interesting to contemplate what markets will look like later. Will the 2006 American Strat be a "vintage" guitar in 20-30 years or will it just be an "old used" guitar? Who knows? These concepts are fun to think about and talk about. The same is true with recording gear.
 
nate_dennis said:
I don't think anyone here is actually talking about using analog gear as a retirement plan or investment fund. I, for one, find it very interesting to contemplate what markets will look like later. Will the 2006 American Strat be a "vintage" guitar in 20-30 years or will it just be an "old used" guitar? Who knows? These concepts are fun to think about and talk about. The same is true with recording gear.
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Well, I find the way manufacturers using the word "vintage" (or "re-issue") as a marketing ploy right now is misleading and dishonest. Doesn't apply to analog gear yet because no one is manufacturing it right now. The term vintage is now meaningless in my book. However, I understand what you are saying. Some of those real old "used" guitars are very expensive right now.
 
guido #2 said:
I just like old gear 'cause the knobs are bigger!
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big knob!

mackie_big_knob.jpg
 
nate_dennis said:
I don't think anyone here is actually talking about using analog gear as a retirement plan or investment fund. I, for one, find it very interesting to contemplate what markets will look like later. Will the 2006 American Strat be a "vintage" guitar in 20-30 years or will it just be an "old used" guitar? Who knows? These concepts are fun to think about and talk about. The same is true with recording gear.
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This is an important clarification. I don't expect to be selling off a Tascam 22 to pay for my kids' college. It would just be nice if the gear always held some value so we don't throw money away.

Like my mic collection: Most of my mics, I carefully searched for deals where I know I can sell them for about what I paid. Beyer M160's for $300. RE20 for $250. A dozen or so more that are worth at least what I paid. I don't feel bad about spending money when I know it's good gear that holds value.

That's why I mentioned my Nagra. That's a chunk of money. They are also regarded as higher quality than something like a Tascam, and full factory service/parts are still available. But still, times change.
 
Has anyone seen the prices people are wanting for the Otari equipment????? 6 or 7 hundred for the 5050's and things like that. [WOW!!!!SIZE="7"][/SIZE] As you see people are asking that much but people are not buying.
 
I don't expect to ever get what I paid for my Tascam 38, which to this day remains my largest ever cash purchase.

In fact, I don't expect much of any *thing* I own, except for my house to increase in value.

That said, I do think there is a "niche" analog market. All the R&D has been done a long time ago. Demand seems to be consistent in the analog market, so either reverse engineering, licensing or a combination of the two, the niche will be supported when or if the used/NOS market can't support it.
 
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