Lying with statistics

TAE

TAE

All you have is now
Woo Hoo Newsom is our Man! Or is he? To be clear a huge Newsome fan I AM NOT!

We still get a physical paper newspaper delivered to our house daily because we LOVE to kill trees! ;)

We also get it delivered digitally...with all I got going on like hanging out here wasting my time, I rarely read it.

But the wife, it's part of her morning rituals as she ingest the animal sacrifices ( egg omelets) she makes daily.

Well today she is reading and the Oh My God listen to this stuff starts and then she proceeds to read me these facts this writer has put together clearly showing something is rotten in Denmark with this election that went down....As she starts running the percentages my little pea brain is running them in my head...and I say..hold on..read that back to me again... babe the dumbass is lying with statistics what an asshole..stirring up shit, trying to imply there is some kind of conspiracy...the numbers clearly don't add up...Duh asshat....They can't you're not using the right numbers in you analysis... Oh she did not want to hear that...I tried to verbally explain what I was seeing to no avail ...she's getting mad...OK I'll show you in a spread sheet it will be easier to explain Eat shit and die you muth fuka she says in a much more passive agressive way ;) I don't need you to explain don't bother! OY The masses are asses and people are sheeple ....

So

I love coming here and bullshitting with ya all because ya know what accomplished musicians have in common? As a whole ( studies have shown statistically)...(Am I lying?) we are generally a little smarter , have higher IQ's so though we can all be idiots and dumbasses..at least it's generally at a higher level of communication. Sans the totally bat shit crazy ones that we have to filter through.. So much fun having intelligent debates and conversations here without the chitter chatter of the monkeys chiming in like on Facebook or Twitter....just a different blend of intelligence on those forums so often ...more often than here...you're better off talking to your hand....or the wall.. wow do I sound like an egotistical self absorbed turd...yep that's me circling the wagon train with my tribe of barbarians ready to go in for the kill at any moment..

If ya wanna play...

The wife kind of took the bait that something is fishy how can he get 56% of the votes when only 46% are registered Democrats that would mean that even republicans had to vote for him..( The horror) ( Don't worry they didn't) ..Tried to splain to her..I said LUCY! LISTEN TO ME! She threw a spoon at me :eek: Maybe just maybe a lot more democraps showed up to vote than pubiclicans...then she threw a fork and said Fork you! Just kidding about the spoon and fork she only threw darts with her eyes...and those hurt enough ...

Here's the article below can you spot the first lying with statistics maneuver he uses?

Preliminary numbers from
Tuesday’s statewide primary
election show voter turnout of
a dismal 16%.
The state now mails a ballot to every active registered
voter, 21.94 million of them
at last count. Mail ballots
don’t need postage. Voters can
vote early in person, and in
the counties that have implemented the Voters Choice Act,
including massive Los Angeles, voters may cast or drop
off their ballot at vote centers
anywhere in the county for up
to 11 days before the election.
California drivers are now automatically registered to vote
at the Department of Motor
Vehicles unless they opt out.
With all of this, turnout was
far below previous gubernatorial primary elections. In June
2018, turnout was 37.54%. It
was 25.17% in 2014 and 33.31%
in 2010.
Another thing that doesn’t
exactly add up is the sweeping
success of incumbents even as
Californians tell pollsters the
state is on the wrong track.
According to PPIC’s latest poll,
conducted after ballots were
mailed out last month, 52% of
likely voters think California
is headed in the “wrong direction.”
Be that as it may, Gov.
Gavin Newsom easily cruised
toward reelection with 1.9
million votes, 56.2% of the
votes counted by Thursday
morning. That was well above
statewide Democratic party
registration, which is 46.77%.
Second place went to Republican Brian Dahle with just under 600,000 votes, 17%, well
below California’s Republican registration of 23.93%. Although nearly 5 million Californians (22.7%) are registered as No Party Preference,
NPP candidate Michael Shellenberger finished a very distant third with 128,253 votes,
or 3.7%, as of Thursday morning, despite a strong following
on social media and two bestselling books on the failures of
California climate and homelessness policy.
It would seem that almost
all of the November statewide
races can be called now for the
Democrats. U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla, with 53.4% of the vote in
his race for a second term, will
face Republican Mark Meuser,
who polled at 14.4%. Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis received
52% of the vote and will face
a Republican, Angela E. Underwood Jacobs, who polled at
20%. Secretary of State Shirley Weber had 58.7% to Republican Rob Bernosky’s 19.5%.
In the race for state controller, Republican Lanhee Chen
led the field, but he received
barely more than a third of
the vote at 37.1% and will face
Democrat Malia Cohen, who
led a field of other Democrats
with 21.2% as of Wednesday
morning.
In the state treasurer’s race,
incumbent Democrat Fiona
Ma (57.5%) will face Republican Jack Guerrero (21.4%) if
current numbers hold, or Republican Andrew Do (18%) if
they don’t. Incumbent Democrat Attorney General Rob
Bonta (54.4%) will face either
Republican Nathan Hochman
(18.5%) or Republican Eric
Early (16.9%). No Party Preference candidate Anne Marie
Schubert, the formerly Republican district attorney of Sacramento County, drew only
7.5% of the vote.
Democratic incumbents
in two other statewide races
won large pluralities. Superintendent of Public Instruction
Tony Thurmond had 45.7%
of the vote in the nonpartisan race, with Ainye E. Long,
George Yang and Lance Christensen all slightly under 12%
of the vote in the fight for second place. Scandal-plagued
Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara drew the support of 37% of voters, with Republicans Robert Howell and
Greg Conlon and Democrat
Marc Levine battling for second place with between 16%
and 18%.
Very little if anything will
change in California government following the November
election. If voters are unhappy
about the direction of the
state, they have an odd way of
showing it.
 
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The problem with belief is it interferes with the ability to change ones mind when presented with something that disagrees with said belief. Avoid believing in anything if at all possible and treat everything as "possible data points" like me! Ha ha.
 
People believe what they 'want' to hear.

Two diet plans to lose ten pound per week for sale. One is, ten mile run and nothing but salad three times a day. .............................. The other is a big Mac for breakfast, KFC and Pizza for dinner. Sit in front of tele 16 hours per day. ..............................Which one do you think will sell the most?
 
whyseye said:
What exactly are you trying to say here, TAE?
Click to expand...
I think that what TAE is saying is that statistically speaking the voting process doesn't always add up to a 1+1=2 level of integrity at the State level or National level.

That's my interpretation of TAE's post. He has every right to call into question the outcome from a statistical and mathematical analysis of registered voters.

What's driving your sudden interest?
 
It says voter turnout was dismal, and there are horse races between democrat candidates who offer little variation in policy preferences.

Simultaneously, polling suggests CA voters are split on right direction/wrong direction.

These seem mutually exclusive, except when you consider that perhaps Californians are morons.
 
My old chemistry teacher in high school once told us:

There are liars,
Then there are damn liars,
Then there are statisticians.
 
Supercreep said:
It says voter turnout was dismal, and there are horse races between democrat candidates who offer little variation in policy preferences.

Simultaneously, polling suggests CA voters are split on right direction/wrong direction.

These seem mutually exclusive, except when you consider that perhaps Californians are morons.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't dare suggest it that all Californians are morons. South to North....California is a huge State inhabited by a majority of people in California who could care less about America.

She'll have fun fun fun 'til her Daddy takes the keys away.
 
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60's guy said:
I wouldn't dare suggest it that all Californians are morons. South to North....California is a huge State inhabited by a majority of people in California who could care less about America.

She'll have fun fun fun 'til her Daddy takes the keys away.
Click to expand...
T-bird away

 
IDK what the OP point was but my personal take away is that statistics , like the bible , can be used to prove anything, even opposing viewpoints. Just selective editing needed.
 
When I trained to be a Further and Higher Education teacher, the most interesting session we had was on statistics. Two groups, each one briefed with a 'top secret' agenda and scenario/context. We were sort of given a cause to prove, set within constructing an advertising campaign for TV, radio, social media (very new at that time) and the press. Two groups of 'normal' people, all intelligent, but from multiple areas of society, and British class. The same data was available to each. The results were stunningly different. My first introduction to swing. Real facts but used entirely differently. Since then - I understand things like our Office of National Statistics. They collect and collate, but never sift, sort or rationalise.
 
1. Your fuel tank is half empty.

2. You have used half a tank of fuel.

3. Your fuel tank is half full.

4. You have half a tank of fuel left.

5. You only have half a tank of fuel left!

Each of the above say exactly the same. 1 & 2 would give you cause for concern. 3 & 4 would possibly reassure you. 5 may scare the shit out of you.

Statistics and words can be skewed to mean different things. It all depends who is using them and why.
 
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whyseye said:
What exactly are you trying to say here, TAE
Click to expand...

Two things..

In this particular article the author uses some statistics to make his point. When the wife read it she got the exact impression that the author intended ....which was there is something wrong with these numbers. The wife kind of took the bait believing that it doesn't add up if he get 56% of the votes when only 46% are registered Democrats. I explained this could mean many things...the first one that screamed to me was that the ratio of democrats that voted in this election vs republicans could be way higher than the "statistic" (only 46% of registered voters in California are democrat) the author uses to try and make his point, create cause for concern. . We'd have to know the percentage of democrats who voted in this particular election to know if it was an unusually high number beyond democrats that voted for him.. She did not understand when I tried to explain this and a few other scenarios and she did not want to hear it or have me show her on a spread sheet damn it...There's something fishy going on here!

The second is just pointing out the obvious that most people ( the masses ) read these type of purposely manipulated articles, don't think it through and just accept it as fact...and then if it is an instigating fact, spread it like wildfire on social media so all their friends and the world "knows the truth" LOL

It is the way of the world if you tell a lie enough times it becomes truth....

Mark Twain popularized the saying in Chapters from My Autobiography, published in the North American Review in 1907. "Figures often beguile me," Twain wrote, "particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

1654960148906.png
"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is unclear,
but Mark Twain attributed it to Benjamin Disraeli

On this subject I certainly feel very much like ol Ben up above looks

Utterly Disgusted and disgusted by Udders :laughings:
 
A bit like the new posts button that always gives you posts you are positive we've done before - so we cannot even agree on what is new?
 
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