My Corona

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...the Great Recession is the other Fear Topic....but in hindsight the charts don't show it as much of a big deal.

I never thought the 2008 recession was that big a deal either...but they are talking about something more like the Great Depression "if" the shutdowns lasts for months and the economy completely tanks.
If a lot of businesses collapse because there's no money coming in...it could get ugly. Some big retailers are ready to go into bankruptcy and some saying they will not be reopening. That means people not working...and just like the fear and panic with the virus, the stock market...there could be a chain reaction that sees many businesses fold..."if" this last for too long.

Anyway...we still didn't get the stimulus checks...so my TV purchase was not made with them. :D
 
I never thought the 2008 recession was that big a deal either...but they are talking about something more like the Great Depression "if" the shutdowns lasts for months and the economy completely tanks.
If a lot of businesses collapse because there's no money coming in...it could get ugly. Some big retailers are ready to go into bankruptcy and some saying they will not be reopening. That means people not working...and just like the fear and panic with the virus, the stock market...there could be a chain reaction that sees many businesses fold..."if" this last for too long.

Anyway...we still didn't get the stimulus checks...so my TV purchase was not made with them. :D

2008 crushed me, I was out of work for over a year. My saving and stocks tanked, I had to lock in the loss because I needed the money to survive.

That said, I did survive, lost nothing but money that was going to be used in my golden years, and worried for nothing.

The thing about 2008 I most regret, I was off for almost a year and I didn't take the time to enjoy it. My worrying didn't gain me one thing.
 
2008 crushed me, I was out of work for over a year. My saving and stocks tanked, I had to lock in the loss because I needed the money to survive.

That said, I did survive, lost nothing but money that was going to be used in my golden years, and worried for nothing.

The thing about 2008 I most regret, I was off for almost a year and I didn't take the time to enjoy it. My worrying didn't gain me one thing.

yeah its all relevant, a recession is your neighbor being laid off, a depression is when you get laid off.

the working poor get hit the worst, the familys with kids its devastating and often into eviction fast with no savings.... affordable housing doesn't exist.

I recall being laid off,. no income with family of 4 and the unemployment checks were a joke, like 25% of what I needed.
Its why Im pro- unemployment for working poor out of work. I learned my lesson not to depend on the Employer, get your savings and sht-together ….youre on your own. It was a healthy wake up call in hindsight and made me grow up and stop being a spoilt little whiny immature prick rich kid driving a BMW thinking bad things happen to other people, Its weird.... it was horrible but very good too?

I was back to work with the same thought, like I had zero fun during the layoff time because the homeless fear was there really quick.
Being immature and naïve I never gave a thought about emergency rainy day funds and assumed if I needed money, just go to the bank! get a loan! lol.....banks don't loan to laid off people I found out...lol
 
The thing about 2008 I most regret, I was off for almost a year and I didn't take the time to enjoy it. My worrying didn't gain me one thing.

That's some wise reflection sir!

I was soooo lucky to be where I was when the shit hit the fan. I've always been in the construction world and a shit load of people I knew crashed and burned..Fortunately I was at the right place at the right time and cruised through making a decent salary. I left in 2011 to do my own thing and it's been a fun ride. At this juncture life is pretty amazing with grandkids and a good life I just have to figure out how to keep breathing now so I can continue to enjoy the family, make some money, play some golf and rock on....

A I said in one of my tunes...

Now is the time you have for now
There's no tomorrow
No yesterday
Now's the time
The times today
Now's the time
The time you have for now
Forget about the things that you can't change
All you have is now

Some people worry bout the future
Some people worry bout the past
Those people
Those crazy people
Are living their lives with their heads up their ass
Forget about the things that you can't change
All you have is now...
 
2008 crushed me, I was out of work for over a year. My saving and stocks tanked, I had to lock in the loss because I needed the money to survive.

That said, I did survive, lost nothing but money that was going to be used in my golden years, and worried for nothing.

The thing about 2008 I most regret, I was off for almost a year and I didn't take the time to enjoy it. My worrying didn't gain me one thing.

Well yeah, everyone's experience was different in 2008. I never lost my job, but we didn't get any cost of living bumps for 3 years, yet I did see the prices of many things go up during that time...so we got the same salaries, but paid out more for the same things.
Still...as a whole...the recession of 2008 would be nothing compared to a depression like USA saw back in the 1930s.

The Great Depression was caused by (I pulled this off the net):

-Irrational optimism and overconfidence in the 1920s.
-1929 Stock Market Crash.
-Bank Closures and weaknesses in the banking system.
-Overproduction of consumer goods.
-Fall in demand and the purchase of consumer goods.
-Bankruptcies and High levels of debt.
-Lack of credit.

Now we are not close to all that at this time...but it's not a stretch that if we remain in a shutdown for months on end...the stock market could really crash...banks could start to default, because the feds can only go so deep into debt to pump them up...already we have consumer goods piling up that no one is buying...demand for those goods will drop off if the shutdown last long enough...people will go bankrupt (some already are from this)...and credit will dry up.

Those are not just "worries"...they are possible realities, and I say that not because I am in personally in fear of my own survival, since I'm well covered at this time...but it will make for a very ugly future even if you have enough to exist fairly comfortably, if the USA or global economy tanks.

On another note...I just read an article that Sweden is taking a different approach than most other countries, and they are going to relax the "shutdown" stuff.
Their logic and data shows that if they opt for the "herd" approach, which happens when about 60% of the population is infected, most of the people will have mild to no symptoms, and their mortality rate will be no worse than what other countries are seeing with the shutdowns...BUT...they will get past the virus faster and be more immune to it quicker...so they will recover faster. IOW...they know that some people will die, but they did the math and figured it will happen no matter what. Other countries are now watching to see how that goes in Sweden.

I don't have any data or science...but I've been saying and thinking that the shutdowns will actually prolong the spread of the virus...and in the end, the mortality rate will not be lessened by any prolonged shutdown...so what will be affected is our economy and future.
 
That's some wise reflection sir!

I was soooo lucky to be where I was when the shit hit the fan. I've always been in the construction world and a shit load of people I knew crashed and burned..Fortunately I was at the right place at the right time and cruised through making a decent salary. I left in 2011 to do my own thing and it's been a fun ride. At this juncture life is pretty amazing with grandkids and a good life I just have to figure out how to keep breathing now so I can continue to enjoy the family, make some money, play some golf and rock on....

A I said in one of my tunes...

Now is the time you have for now
There's no tomorrow
No yesterday
Now's the time
The times today
Now's the time
The time you have for now
Forget about the things that you can't change
All you have is now

Some people worry bout the future
Some people worry bout the past
Those people
Those crazy people
Are living their lives with their heads up their ass
Forget about the things that you can't change
All you have is now...

Just to throw one back at ya ;)
Killing Time by DM60 | Free Listening on SoundCloud
 
Well yeah, everyone's experience was different in 2008. I never lost my job, but we didn't get any cost of living bumps for 3 years, yet I did see the prices of many things go up during that time...so we got the same salaries, but paid out more for the same things.
Still...as a whole...the recession of 2008 would be nothing compared to a depression like USA saw back in the 1930s.

The Great Depression was caused by (I pulled this off the net):

-Irrational optimism and overconfidence in the 1920s.
-1929 Stock Market Crash.
-Bank Closures and weaknesses in the banking system.
-Overproduction of consumer goods.
-Fall in demand and the purchase of consumer goods.
-Bankruptcies and High levels of debt.
-Lack of credit.

Now we are not close to all that at this time...but it's not a stretch that if we remain in a shutdown for months on end...the stock market could really crash...banks could start to default, because the feds can only go so deep into debt to pump them up...already we have consumer goods piling up that no one is buying...demand for those goods will drop off if the shutdown last long enough...people will go bankrupt (some already are from this)...and credit will dry up.

Those are not just "worries"...they are possible realities, and I say that not because I am in personally in fear of my own survival, since I'm well covered at this time...but it will make for a very ugly future even if you have enough to exist fairly comfortably, if the USA or global economy tanks.

On another note...I just read an article that Sweden is taking a different approach than most other countries, and they are going to relax the "shutdown" stuff.
Their logic and data shows that if they opt for the "herd" approach, which happens when about 60% of the population is infected, most of the people will have mild to no symptoms, and their mortality rate will be no worse than what other countries are seeing with the shutdowns...BUT...they will get past the virus faster and be more immune to it quicker...so they will recover faster. IOW...they know that some people will die, but they did the math and figured it will happen no matter what. Other countries are now watching to see how that goes in Sweden.

I don't have any data or science...but I've been saying and thinking that the shutdowns will actually prolong the spread of the virus...and in the end, the mortality rate will not be lessened by any prolonged shutdown...so what will be affected is our economy and future.

I think you are right about prolonging, but my understanding that is the point. Keep the curve at or below the capacity to treat the sick.
 
You know Miro.......it's almost impossible for me to believe that you think that there would not be less deaths if the infection rate is not slowed down. Making the assumption that you understand the possibility.....indeed likelihood.....that a high rate of infection happening over a short period of time could or would overrun our hospitals (maybe you don't think that) then that can only result in "some" amount of unnecessary death due to lack of staff or resource or meds or ventilators....or whatever. If this virus ends up not overtaxing our hospitals......then your thinking would be correct IMO. Those who get the virus would all get the best treatment possible.....so those who died would have anyway. How does your assumption work though........if the hospitals do get overrun and some die that didn't have to?
It sort of seems to me like you're not wanting to think that any severe hospital / medical shortage can affect any outcome.

I want to think that you're totally correct. Everyone who dies from this virus could not have been saved. As for the economy.......this is the most ideal way to have a problem with the economy............not that an economic problem has any positive side. It will recover....and quickly most likely. I guess it's ok to think that everything has a cost.....and if that cost was just $$$$.....I'd be with you on this. But I just have a problem putting a value on life. I know you do too. As I mentioned before......I hope I look like a total fool on this one!!
 
I think you are right about prolonging, but my understanding that is the point. Keep the curve at or below the capacity to treat the sick.

Oh I do understand that hospitals in NY and a few other "hot spots" are full to the max...and that's something that needs to be addressed...but, you don't need to shut down the entire country because hospitals are out of beds.
I don't mean that to sound cold...but there are so many areas that are not seeing any spread, and they too are all locked in and everything has stopped.
I think that is the basis of the logic in Sweden...focus on the urban hot spots...but relax in the more suburban and rural areas.

Prolonging the spread by hiding inside, will not lessen anything, IMO.
You will still end up with that 60-80% infection of the population...you will still end up with the same mortality rate.

I also think that endless testing is pointless. It's driven up the numbers...but has offered nothing for those who test positive without symptoms other than to tell them to self-quarantine, but yet, people still need to get groceries, etc...so who is really staying locked up? This is why I think we are just prolonging the inevitable.

I went to the supermarket last night...people doing that weird stepping aside when approaching each other, like that's really doing anything. Some wearing gloves, but then talking on their smart phones while holding them with the gloves on...DUH???
At the check out, I got behind one guy and stood back about 6 feet so as not to freak him out...and immediately one of the cashiers told me to go to another register...which I guess is their attempt to keep people apart...and then they are spraying the conveyor like it was a hazmat zone...yet we all pick the items off the shelves that probably a hundred other people touched and passed by (at less than 6').

So I think there is this weird overreaction that is making some people "feel" safer...but much of it is pointless, and in the end, the virus will run its course.
I mean...if you stay in for a few weeks...will the virus be all gone when you finally stick your head out the door...? Probably not.
The reality that's becoming apparent is that this virus has been here since back in October, and many people have had it without showing any symptoms or maybe real mild cold/flu like symptoms...so the spread has already been going on for quite awhile...and now that the horses are out of the corral, we're worried about closing the gates.

It's a beautiful day here...sunny, temps up in the mid-high 60s...and people are outside. I was outside for awhile, and am going back out to do some clean-up work around my studio construction zone. My neighbors kids were out in the yard...another neighbor was out with his two small toddlers.
People are not going to remain locked up for months...ain't gonna happen....especially now as Spring is breaking and the outside activities kick off.
 
This is not a time for being macho or pompous. We all should do what we can do not to get it or spread it. Based upon what we know today. Information that is available for anyone with half a brain to analyze and come to recognize this is not like anything any of us breathing has ever experienced in our lives. To mock or ignore what we are all being asked to do, to not try your best to avoid getting it, and or spreading it is just ignorantly irresponsible. There's a lot of smart people weighing in that this is not as big a deal as "The government" is making it. There is no arguing that as long as there are politicians there will be political grandstanding. That said it is clear we have screwed the pooch in keeping our numbers down here in the U.S. and we need to do better...Saw this on FB and thought I'd share as I kinda go along with it...


Dick and Jane BOTH show early symptoms. Jane STAYS HOME, gets tested and awaits her results . Dick goes to work, stops for a quick drink at the local bar, pops by his parents house, hits the gym, begins to feel worse (eh, but even if he does have it, he's healthy, so he'll recover quickly⏰). Dick finally decides to get tested . Both Dick and Jane get positive test results. Jane infects no one once she started to show symptoms. Dick potentially infects dozens, if not hundreds, by his SELFISH behavior. Be like Jane Don't be a Dick! .
 
It's got nothing to do with being pompous or macho...but to think for yourself a bit, and use some common sense, and not simply buy into what the media is selling at face value....which is where most people are getting their "info" from, on endless 24/7 news cycles.
They watch that shit non-stop all day long...no wonder so many are living in fear and ready to panic at the drop of a hat.

There are too many people making reactionary decisions, looking only at solving immediate issues, without considering the long-term. There are also some differing views both from scientists and politicians...and everyone wants to be right, to be the one who saves the day with their reactionary decisions.
I am very interested to see how Sweden makes out with its more relaxed approach, by letting the virus run its course, since they feel it will not change the numbers all that much in the end.

Bottom line...if anyone feels safer staying in until the government tells them they can go back out...then they should do that.
That said...I think there is a misconception that we can wait this out and then it will be gone...and as mentioned before...I believe it will only prolong the spread by trying to hide from it. At best, a vaccine is about 1 year and a half away, assuming it works...so there's no way we can just stay inside waiting for that to save us from getting the virus.

More and more people are now realizing that this virus has been with us since back in the early fall...but many people assumed it was just the flu if they got sick...so AFA it spreading, that's being going on way longer than just the last 3-4 weeks. The rise in testing makes it seem like it all just hit us in the last few weeks, like some fast moving wave...but it's been here much longer than that, and many of us have been exposed to it without even knowing.
Now it's peaking so it looks real bad...but look at China, they are already moving on from it, yet here, some are acting like we have to stay shut in for 6-9 months.
 
Sweden's "more relaxed approach" may backfire on it. If you look at its daily new cases graph, you can see an initial rise, then a dip, and now a bigger rise. Sweden's rate per 1m people is 304. The USA is sitting on 315, and its daily new case on a steady upward curve.

I believe that in the Sweden article, they said that they expected the rise, and initially it would follow the same curves...but once they got to 60% infected, which is that "herd" thing...then their models show it will fall off rapidly, and the net result will be a faster conclusion with no increase in mortality rate than what is happening in countries opting for the hide-in-place mentality.

IOW...and my own belief...is that this thing has been already running its course since October, and will continue to do so until it reaches the saturation point and peters out. No amount of staying home will save more people from it in the long run....so then, getting through it faster than in some prolonged manner would be best.
 
getting through it faster than in some prolonged manner would be best.

Sure. Getting through it faster would be great. However, that means having a greater number of cases earlier. That is not necessarily a bad thing unless you don't have the hospital capacity (in either equipment or staff) to deal with that large number.
 
I get the whole idea is to reduce the amount of people infecting the others while reducing the quantity heading to the hospitals. I still think the "goal" is to not go to the hospital as it would be horrific, besides the V19 might or not be severe...in addition to not spreading it to others. I guess this is like STD's without the fun part?

The economy seems to be the bad side effect for the drawn out approach, depending how a person looks at it. Many are playing the WallStreet Casino game and buying low and will gamble the bottom has been seen and make a lot of cash on this downturn.

Im old, so Im kind of looking at this like a retirement trial run. Home all day for weeks, looking to be months. Im actually enjoying this paid time off to chill out and stay safe. Maybe start losing that 30lbs, getting the closets cleaned out, and get ready to find a smaller retirement place coming in the next few years. Wierd I used to work old folks homes....now I can sign up for a room.:eek:
 
Sure. Getting through it faster would be great. However, that means having a greater number of cases earlier. That is not necessarily a bad thing unless you don't have the hospital capacity (in either equipment or staff) to deal with that large number.

Yes...there is that concern about hospitals being overrun...in the hot spots, they already are.
I think there is a balance point...which I guess is what Sweden is banking on...where as they reach that 60% herd immunity, most people will not be ill enough to require hospital stays, and also, the sooner they get to herd immunity levels, the faster the infections will dissipate.

I just don't know if holding back the spread so that it's a slower pace but much more prolonged is going to really save anyone more.
It's not like they have a limited supply of "cure" to dish out. All they are doing is making those hospital people comfortable as best as possible with IVs and what have you...but I do feel that most who recover, have their own bodies to thank...likewise, those that die in the hospitals, do so no matter how great the medical intervention.

So yeah...a balance point needs to be reached...and one can't ignore that the majority of the population is not infected or not in any noticeable way, and the majority that has symptoms, eventually recovers. I think at some point, they need to consider how many lives they are saving, and how much of it is just noble effort, which is what overwhelms the hospital system.
The purpose of medicine is to try and save everyone, at any cost, with every effort, no matter how futile the situation. I know it's a hard call, but when we are faced with something of this magnitude where medicine and healthcare facilities are not able to have definitive results with those efforts...other approaches should be considered. I think that's where the thinking is in Sweden.
 
Here is a very interesting way of displaying data graphically that helps to reveal whether any positive progress is being made. It's not a long video, maybe seven minutes:

 
Here is a very interesting way of displaying data graphically that helps to reveal whether any positive progress is being made. It's not a long video, maybe seven minutes:



Fucking exactly! This is shit is to be take n seriously and when we don't people die...if you want to try and justify being an anti-conformist by saying it is only the weak, old and compromised lovely. Tell that to the parents, children, grand children and friends of those that died sooner than they needed to so you could have your first world lifestyle unimpeded. The media kind of half ass explains how China handled it . I'm in the quartz business and since 2007 China has been my only source for the material. I have well over a year , yes over 500 days of travel in China in the last 13 years. I have many friends and business associates there and as previously mentioned my business partner is Chinese who came to the U.S. as a young man earned his PHD in Chemical engineering at USC and then went back to China and to make his first fortune. Kind of a credible source.

I am copying and pasting a message I received on Linkedin from one of my Chinese associates below so you can understand just how much more seriously China took this than MOST of the rest of the world and the results mirror the degree of severity that countries went about locking down. That faster and harder they were the better their results. In the message she tells he story but leaves out some hardcore details like the fact that if you were in Wuhan where 80% of the people live in apartments for two plus weeks you were locked in your apartment with a security tape seal across your door ...no in or out only able to get that door open when officials came with the bare necessities food, water, TP and prescriptions you needed to live.

With China going into their 12th week and the U.S. into our 4th per capita we already have twice as many cases..with 25% of CHina's population ...Houston...we have a problem....Hopefully we can improve on how we go about slowing this down....


"I am really felt so sorry about the worse corona virus situation in the world. Here I'd like to share the experience I went through personally in China when the corona virus started spreading from the end of January.

1. The mainly affected province Wuhan, Hubei, which is 60+ million population : The government locked all the city exits to stop any people to go out of the city, until now, Wuhan people still can stay at home only, even the situation already much much better now.

About the people already went out from HUBEI province, the local officials tracking their routine and asked these people isolated immediately at least 14 days, and the people he had contacted and the people in the same flight, same train and bus or taxi and places he visited, also under quarantine.

And about the people outside Hubei province, at that time it was the Chinese New Year, actually we need family and relatives reunion, but all cancelled.
We can only stay at home,can't meet and visit our relatives and friends.

2. All the buses, temples, restaurants, cinemas, shops, factories and schools etc.. are closed to avoid any people gathering. And the governments asked people to clean and sterilize the public place every day.

3. When I come back to XIAMEN from my hometown, every highway station need to check our body temperature and submit our health information in mobile App.

4. After arrived at Xiamen, the government asked us to isolate at least 14 days and every day need to report our body temperature to the local officers to prove our health status, including the kids.

5. After 14 days, finally we can go out, but have to wear mask. Temperature checking is in every entry of buildings and communities.
We also need to wear mask when working, and wash hands frequently by soap or alcohol based rub , the distance between people should be at least 1 meter. meanwhile, body temperature must be checked every day by our factory. Some staffs just catch a cold or cough, they were asked to stay at home immediately.

Sincerely hope the above information can do a little help for you to avoid any corona virus contact. If anything we can do for you, please feel free to contact us.Our minds and thoughts are with you. I hope all well.

Take care! Stay strong!!"
 
I went to the supermarket last night...people doing that weird stepping aside when approaching each other, like that's really doing anything. Some wearing gloves, but then talking on their smart phones while holding them with the gloves on...DUH???
At the check out, I got behind one guy and stood back about 6 feet so as not to freak him out...and immediately one of the cashiers told me to go to another register...which I guess is their attempt to keep people apart...and then they are spraying the conveyor like it was a hazmat zone...yet we all pick the items off the shelves that probably a hundred other people touched and passed by (at less than 6').
.

The market I was at the other day was completely reorganized. Limited occupancy. Limited selection. 1 way isles. 1 person a time. 6ft social distance. Cashiers and stock workers, donning gloves and masks. Stay behind the blue lines. No clearance bins to dig through DVDs. It was Walgreens but stripped down and militarized. They had a system to wait your turn in your car in the parking lot. People are doing what is necessary for now. Yeah, wow and, oh my.
 
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