Let's play a game

C

CyanJaguar

New member
Let's predict how well a particular Album will do

ON THE STRENGTH OF ONE SONG.

The album I'll like to focus on this time around is Dave MAtthews "Some devil" and the first single on it is "Grave Digger"

The questions:

How high will it climb on the charts and how quickly?
How many copies sold in the first week?
will it go platinum or not?

ON THE STRENGTH OF ONE SONG.



MY answers:
ON the strength of Gravedigger,
THe album will climb into the top 10, topping out at maybe number 4. It will get to number 4 in the 6th week after its release

Number of copies to sell in debut week? 125,000

Platinum or not? Multiplatinum


Now lets hear your predictions
 
While I completely agree with your assertions (as incessant as they may be :p) that a wildcard plays an important role in song-writing, I don't really think that you have the "golden" ear for wildcards that you think you have.

Gravedigger is a mediocre song, at best. DMB's previous hits had much more hooky melodies and memorable, "sing-along-able" choruses. I don't think that Gravedigger will be the "backbone" of the new DM (minus the B) album. I think he'll have to come up with another, more "commercial" tune off that album if he wants it to reach platinum sales on the strength of the singles. His name and large, pre-existing fan-base (not to mention that this is his "much anticipated" solo debut) will guarantee him sales, regardless, and will probably launch Gravedigger to the Top 40 (maybe even top 10) simply because there's so many people out there who will buy DM just because it's DM, but the first single doesn't really show the same staying power that the DMB songs of the past displayed... and if this is all he can come up with, I predict that the albumn will trail off after the novelty of a DM solo album has worn off.


WATYF
 
watyf, those are very good and valid observations. I think that DMB was some kind of fad for the american people because I sat through his concert (on tape) one time and I only heard one OK song.

Gravedigger is probably the second song of DM that I have enjoyed. I did not even like it the first time around. The emotion that he wrote that song with, and the synergistic effect that the lyrics have on the melody ("so I can feel the rain") are really powerful for me.

I am happy that you concur with the wildcard concept. I guess I am incessant ( nice word, I had to look it up, but I'll start using it now) because the wildcard is such a powerful thing in my mind and music is such a powerful art/tool that I just cant help myself. I never thought it was a "golden ear" but I hope I am right in picking wildcards because I am about to "bet the farm" on that one concept.
 
applesmasher said:
waht is the wild card concept agin? that people want to listen to singles?
Click to expand...

the wildcard is the melody that makes you want to listen over and over again. I think certain wildcards preempt a chemical reaction/brain process in one's body that makes people feel all good.

research shows that babies like to be sung to, and that they prefer consonant melodies to dissonant ones. I think this is where the concept is born, that even though all melodies consist of 12 or fewer notes, that some are innately more enjoyable than others, and some are so enjoyable that they win the world over.
 
CyanJaguar :

Have you read about the software that is being developed and partially in use for developing and applying these very 'wildcard melodies' to releases ?

The software will indicate how much resource should be spent pushing a particular song ...

I think it's valid.

When you listen to and study birds and birdsong, you can find a tendancey of birds, especially mocking birds, to repeat certain melodies.

Birds that mimic and repeat are worth a lot of study, and should have algorithms developed for 'wildcard software' based on what melodies they most often repeat. IMHO.
 
CyanJaguar said:
I never thought it was a "golden ear" but I hope I am right in picking wildcards because I am about to "bet the farm" on that one concept.
Click to expand...
Well... my point was that you shouldn't just assume that a "wildcard" to you is a wildcard to everybody... that's all. While wildcards definitely do exist, and while there is such a thing as lousy music that never should have been written (whether people want to admit it or not), there is still such a thing as musical taste... and some people have more "commercial" tastes than others.

So, if you're going to make some kind of major decision on the strength of one (or very few) songs, then you should probably consider playing it (anonymously, of course) to people who have different (or even similar) tastes than you.

Now, if you're planning to get involved in a business which requires you to be able to spot a wildcard purely from your own assessment,.. then that's another story. I guess I just wanted to point out that, while I appreciate your enthusiasm for hooky music, I've notice a few times where you've waved the "wildcard" flag in the clinic when I heard no substantive wildcard there myself (and I have extremely commercial tastes... :p). Once again, this is all relevant to taste... so don't think that I'm trying to set a standard here... but you must keep these types of things in mind when getting involved in the "spot the wildcard" bidness. :)



WATYF
 
DM

Of all artists, why choose DM? DM is doing charity now, so...that's his trip to the top forty. He's targeted a different kind of audience, now that he has solidified the loyality of his listeners from the "Luther College" days...why not broaden his scope? Afterall the more you make, the more you spend and the more employees you have to pay.
I purchased DM first album because back then I hadn't yet firmly grasped the idea of "targeted consumer." As an adult and musician I can only say that DM is a product with excellent marketing and PR, nothing more. He's one rich mofo though.
My prediction, "Gravedigger" will linger about and will hold a great nostalgic feel when the trick or treaters are bobbing apples...not sure if that was just a fluke or what.
 
I agree that DM is a well marketed fad and nothing more.

Gravedigger is quite good though and it will probably be the saving grace for his album.

Anyhow,

I said 125,000 in the first week, and it has already sold 400,000 in the first week so I was wrong there. I still think gravedigger will climb to the top five though even though it is crowded by some REALLY good wildcards right now.

Staind's single "so far away" is an incredible Wildcard effort and it should be around for a while. I am also hoping that Maroon5's "harder to breathe keeps climbing.
 
studioviols said:
CyanJaguar :

Have you read about the software that is being developed and partially in use for developing and applying these very 'wildcard melodies' to releases ?

The software will indicate how much resource should be spent pushing a particular song ...

I think it's valid.

When you listen to and study birds and birdsong, you can find a tendancey of birds, especially mocking birds, to repeat certain melodies.

Birds that mimic and repeat are worth a lot of study, and should have algorithms developed for 'wildcard software' based on what melodies they most often repeat. IMHO.
Click to expand...

WOW. I dont know how I feel about that. I guess we'll just have to wait and see if they actually apply correctly.
 
Dm has gone down hill in my opinion. While the lyrics and composition of his new "hit" may be great, I think that the feel and sound of the new song off his solo album sucks. That's just my opinion though. Obviously the 400k others that bought into it feel differently. I certainly expected more! Oh well, maybe next time...
Keith
 
So waht ever happened? Did the DM album reach your predications? Where do they have taht stuff listed? I think it would be in the mid top 10 also.
 
i completely agree with watyf. without even listening to the song i could tell you that a lot of people will buy his cd cause he has a huge following. he's beyond needing a wildcard. kind of like the grateful dead were. they weren't selling based on there musical genius imo, they just had a lot of very loyal fans.

cyan if you're going to make a living marketing music, i think test marketing is a valid pursuit. use your intuition as sort of a first filter of what you should test market, then hit a group of people that represent the demographic to which you wish to sell (important to get to the type of people who will actually spend money on music).

best of luck on your career. interested to see how it works out for ya.
 
CyanJaguar said:
the wildcard is the melody that makes you want to listen over and over again. I think certain wildcards preempt a chemical reaction/brain process in one's body that makes people feel all good.
Click to expand...

Kind off topic. But, this wildcard thing you like to talk about, I always felt was a very vague and intangible thing that was based on nothing more then biases. Maybe, I was wrong. :) In the context of this thread, for some reason, what you said above about the wildcard triggers something in me that makes me think of the golden mean and fibonacci numbers. The Golden mean has been intentionally used by the major classical guys like Mozart, Bach, Beethoven, debussy. You can bet that it probably appears all over rock n roll without people ever even knowing it; including the artists writing the music. It has been deliberately used in DaVince masterpieces and many major works of architecture etc. It is everywhere you go. Cereal boxes and other products that are designed with it sell more; which is interesting. I wonder if there is not some kind of correlation between the golden mean and this wildcard deal you have concieved of? It might be worth looking into this stuff if you want to take your idea about wildcards further.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top