I couldn't put a number on it,...
but I had the issue on a 238 that was in good condition and seemed to work, but was sold as-is.
The symptom is that the capstan motor revs up to sound like a Boeing 747, and any tape played at that speed would sound like Alvin and the Chipmunks. If your 238s revs a little at startup, but otherwise plays normally, then you're okay.
I'd be envious that you got a NIB 238s, if I gave it too much thought.
Tascam Service at the Montebello, CA, TEAC/Tascam factory is the best service out there for TEAC/Tascam gear. They still support the oldest of the old analog tape drives, and so I'd expect support of the 238 to continue for many years to come. I spoke to the main analog repair guy at Tascam, and he said they don't have a flat hourly rate, but they bid the repair price on each item individually. Still, with that being said,... it seems their labor rate averages out to about $125/hr, from what I've seen. That's my ballpark estimation, but you'd have to get a quote on your particular item.
I'd not worry prematurely about the 238's capstan motor, but just to be aware and watch for symptoms. Chances are you'll be fine. How high of a failure item the 238 capstan motor is, I just can't say, but I've had it happen to me on my eBy gear, I've read about it in the online forums, and I've seen more than one 238 listed on eBay as having "speed problems". It's an issue that's out there, but I'd still not recommend worrying about it until something happens.
I'd recommend enjoying the NIB 238s. It's okay IMO for 238 users to feel good about their recorders, and to feel assured they have a better unit than the likes of the Fostex MR-8.